Poll Update: Bounce for McCain

With the results I've seen so far I'm confidently declaring McCain the winner of the VP and convention bounce events. On August 24th, on the eve of the Lieberman selection, Obama was holding a narrow but steady 2 point lead in the race according to RealClearPolitics. First came Obama's underwhelming choice of Joe Biden as his VP, and then we had the DNC convention which was clearly a success and resulted in a 5 point bounce for Obama by late last week.

Obama's time in the news was extremely short lived as on Friday morning John McCain upended the contest as we thought we knew it and it hasn't been the same since. The polls tell the story that although Republicans immediately moved to support McCain and Palin, the general public was much slower and in fact no bounce started showing until Friday morning which would be the first polls to show since the Palin speech. But since then, it's been nothing but positive movement for McCain. It's likely that we aren't done yet moving in the McCain direction.

Currently Gallup has McCain at +3 and Rasmussen at even. (Zogby interactive also has McCain up by 4, but I don't trust that poll farther than I can throw it). Here's Gallup.



The very least we can say is that Obama's momentum coming out of his convention has been completely erased. Worse than that, no one is talking about him. He may take scant comfort in the fact that no one is really talking about McCain either. It's Sarah Palin's world and we are all just living in it.

Also my initial feeling that Biden was a horrible pick is confirmed. Biden is arguably a drain on the ticket, and is not a useful proxy for Obama in making his case to the target demographics that he needs (i.e. Women).

Republican supporters shouldn't get too comfortable as convention bounces fade as they inevitably do and this one will be no different. But the fact remains that we moved into these two weeks with an Obama clear advantage in enthusiasm, in a gender gap, and on the issues. We come out of this week with both essentially tied and the enthusiasm and gender gaps narrowed severely.

On to the debates!