Palin Favorability Fading?
Dave
Contributor
Posted:
09/16/08
FiveThirtyEight.com:
Interesting and something that I could easily believe in given the relentless negative campaign against Palin over the last few weeks. No one would expect her unfavorables to remain as low as they were. And the info above indicates that most of the voters that lean Democrat and get their information from Democrat leaning sources have made up their minds against Palin. Which is about what should be expected.
But Rasmussen also took a poll today that provides further evidence that Palin is definitely pulling her weight. As for Biden? Not so much.
So Palin support among women skews married, older, and richer. Palin support among men is pretty much all over the place.
Clearly Palin has been far and away a net positive for the McCain ticket. Also, just as clearly, her opponents among the media and the Obama campaign (and the lefty bloggers) were right to start attacking right away. The objective was to halt the stratospheric rise, staunch the bleeding and perhaps prepare the way for a turnaround. Whether they can accomplish the second part is speculation, but the race has stabilized with a small McCain edge with good inroads for him among key demographics where he was in trouble. Given where he started a month ago, I think he would be happy with that.
Even if Palin doesn't get him any further, this was still a game-changer and a brilliant pick. However with key debates coming up and the significant dumping on Palin already out there, there's a potential for her to continue hurting Democrats (and Joe Biden) on down the line.
The Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos now has Palin's favorability-unfavorability scores at 45-44 -- just a +1. Six days ago, when the poll, launched, she was at a 52-35, a +17.
And I know that some of you don't like or don't trust this poll -- for reasons that I think are a little silly -- but there is a similar decline in her numbers in the Diageo/Hotline poll. Her favorability numbers in yesterday's Hotline poll -- today's isn't out yet -- were a 48-36, or a +12. But a week ago, on September 8, she had been at a 48-24, a +24.
Interesting and something that I could easily believe in given the relentless negative campaign against Palin over the last few weeks. No one would expect her unfavorables to remain as low as they were. And the info above indicates that most of the voters that lean Democrat and get their information from Democrat leaning sources have made up their minds against Palin. Which is about what should be expected.
But Rasmussen also took a poll today that provides further evidence that Palin is definitely pulling her weight. As for Biden? Not so much.
Just over half of voters view both of the vice presidential candidates at least somewhat favorably, although 35% rate their opinion of Palin as Very Favorable while only 23% feel that way about Biden. Twenty-eight percent (28%) have a very unfavorable opinion of the woman governor of Alaska versus 20% who say that about the longtime Delaware senator.
Women continue to be more skeptical than men of the Republican vice presidential nominee, only the second woman to be on a national political ticket. While men split 50% to 37% in Palin's favor, women support Biden 50% to 44%.
...
Married woman like Palin more than Biden by 12 percentage points, while unmarried women favor the Democrat 58% to 36%. Women with children at home prefer Palin, herself the mother of five, 48% to 40%, but women who do not have children at home are evenly divided over the two candidates.
So Palin support among women skews married, older, and richer. Palin support among men is pretty much all over the place.
Clearly Palin has been far and away a net positive for the McCain ticket. Also, just as clearly, her opponents among the media and the Obama campaign (and the lefty bloggers) were right to start attacking right away. The objective was to halt the stratospheric rise, staunch the bleeding and perhaps prepare the way for a turnaround. Whether they can accomplish the second part is speculation, but the race has stabilized with a small McCain edge with good inroads for him among key demographics where he was in trouble. Given where he started a month ago, I think he would be happy with that.
Even if Palin doesn't get him any further, this was still a game-changer and a brilliant pick. However with key debates coming up and the significant dumping on Palin already out there, there's a potential for her to continue hurting Democrats (and Joe Biden) on down the line.