Two Weeks to Go; Two Point Race

Despite the best efforts of the national press and liberal commentators to declare the presidential race over, Sen. John McCain is within striking distance of Sen. Barack Obama as the campaign winds it way into the final two weeks. A look at the Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Obama's lead shrinking to less than 6 points for the first time in ten days. Six of the last nine polls recorded in the national average show Obama ahead by five points or less. And two recent polls show the race tightening even more; with Obama clinging to just a two point lead in one survey, 44-42%, a statistical tie with his allegedly dead-in-the-water opponent.

The accompanying article, run in a host of media outlets across the country, buries the results of the poll behind a blizzard of responses about the candidates' likability. The Associated Press, which conducted the poll, did not see fit to mention the top line number on the presidential race in its official report of its own findings. But the poll's result was confirmed by another survey taken in the same time frame. The Gallup daily tracking poll showed the race at a two point lead for Sen. Obama, 49-47%, just this past Friday.

Gallup's analysis shows a possible reason for the wide disparity in polling results this election season. Gallup actually reported the results of two different screens of likely voters. It measured the race using the traditional method of accounting for likely voters, and a newer model based upon higher voter registration numbers seen this year due to the intense interest in the Democratic primary. But those numbers are suspect due to the increasingly wide spreading national scandal involving ACORN and voter fraud. ACORN has turned in hundreds of thousands of fraudulent voter registration cards in over a dozen states. The group is under investigation by the FBI for alleged coordinated vote fraud nationwide. It is unlikely that pollsters' new method of counting likely voters accounts for this widespread fraud.

In addition, many of the newly registered voters are young people and those who have never participated in a presidential election before. Every four years, pundits declare that the youth vote is finally going to materialize, but it never has. In that respect, the media may be doing its chosen candidate a disservice by working so hard to declare the election over, while its own polling shows that Americans are not yet completely sold on Sen. Obama.