McCain's Victory Dance

Today on "Meet the Press" John McCain guaranteed victory in his race against Barack Obama:

"We're going to do well in this campaign, my friend. We're going to win it and it's going to be tight, and we're going to be up late."

Of course, what else is he supposed to say? We're going to be trounced? The problem is that, by this time, most Americans take McCain's pronouncements with skepticism. This is the same man, after all, who gave us the following "take-it-to-the-bank" wisdom:

"We will be welcomed as liberators" in Iraq.

"The fundamentals of our economy are strong."

"I am suspending my campaign."

"This is a respectful campaign."

"I think she's [Sarah Palin is] the most qualified of any who has run recently for vice president."

McCain will center his time and resources on Pennsylvania, his must-win state, and the place that generated such negative publicity for him last week. But McCain's make-or-break, come-from-behind gambit relies on the tenuous proposition that he won't lose Florida, Ohio, Nevada, North Dakota, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Colorado, Montana, or Georgia. All of those states are now battlegrounds, and most are trending in Obama's direction. Lastly, here's Pollster's EKG for Pennsylvania: