Red States in Play

Make no mistake, the battleground for this year's election is located in traditionally Republican-held states. And, as we move toward the climax of the race, more so-called "red states" are being put into play.

Over the weekend, two staunchly crimson states, South Dakota and Arizona, were downgraded from "strong" bets for McCain to "lean" McCain. Though McCain leads in S.D. by a cumulative total of 7.5%, and in his home state of AZ by 7.2%, it is worth remembering that McCain's victory plan now relies on winning Pennsylvania, where, by the same measurements, he trails by 12.7%. In other words, if it seems crazy for Obama to try to win AZ., and S.D., it is even crazier to think McCain can win in PA.

Out West, McCain finds himself behind in the reliably red states of Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado (where Obama rallied over 150,000 supporters on Sunday). And he's ahead of Obama by just 2.7% in Montana. In the plains, Obama leads by 3.6% in the GOP stronghold known as North Dakota. The Midwest sees Obama leading in Missouri, Indiana and Ohio, all of which Bush took in '04. In the East, McCain trails in the traditionally safe elephant territories of Virginia and North Carolina. In the South, trouble may be brewing for McCain in Georgia, and Obama continues to cling to his small lead in Florida.

As Obama wraps up his tour of what once might have been termed "enemy territory" for Democrats, the question in this race is no longer whether he can turn a red state blue. Instead, the only remaining suspense is just how big the scope of his conversions will be.