Disregard National Polls

Though we're loathe to admit it, we all love the horse-race aspect of political campaigns. To that end, every four years we study the seismic activity of national polls and stupidly forget that they don't matter one little bit. Obama is up 14% says Pew! Obama is in a virtual tie says an outdated Gallup model! Even though we know better, we, the glassy-eye fish of the electorate, bite into that bait every single time as though it was the first time we'd ever seen a worm.

Damn you, electoral college! You mock our love of national numbers at every turn. Sure, it's our own fault for ignoring your existence right up until election night, but our urge to simplify is our Achilles heel, and you know it.

Actually, personally speaking, I'd just as soon do away with the electoral college. It's time we had a uniform system for selecting our presidents. None of this nonsense which lets some states apportion electoral votes by district, while in others it is winner-take-all. And why not simply just use a popular vote model? That said, you go to war with the army you have.

This year's war is not looking good for John McCain. Why? Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, North Dakota, Nevada, and North Carolina come to mind. With the exception of PA, those are all states Bush won the last time around, and they could all go Obama's way on November 4. Everyone with a modicum of mathematical acumen sees that if McCain loses Pennsylvania, Ohio, or Florida, this baby is over. And despite what the Drudge Report would have you believe, there's not a polling organization worth its salt that doesn't see the electoral map as being heavily tilted in Obama's favor. Could McCain still win? I suppose miracles are possible. But if you take the time to study the numbers and the trends in the states that will decide this election, it's hard to reach a happy outcome for the Arizona guy.

Then again, if you're a McCain supporter, you could just go back to watching the next batch of national numbers. Maybe you'll even convince yourself they mean something.