Big Early Vote Leads for McCain in Florida

Democrats are touting early leads in turnout for early voting in Florida. But a new poll that counts actual votes cast in the early balloting gives Sen. John McCain a four point lead among those who have already voted in the Sunshine State. The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll of early voters shows McCain ahead 49-45%.Democrats outnumber Republicans by 54-30% in the party identification of early voters, according to figures released by the Democratic Party of Florida. Those numbers are not showing up in the voting this far.

More good news for McCain can be found in the the absentee vote tally. Republican registrants lead Democrats by a huge margin, 50-30%, in the over 1.2 million absentee ballots returned this far. Florida has a large active duty military population, many of whom vote by absentee ballot from stations overseas. That typically gives Republican candidates a large vote advantage in state wide elections.

Sen. Obama has been contesting Florida hard. He has blanketed the state with advertisements and chose Florida for both his debate preparations last month and as the site of the live rally that concluded his 30-minute ad Wednesday night. But if the Times poll is accurate, it will be difficult for Obama to overcome McCain's vote advantage. Obama may ultimately wish he had spent more time campaigning in Florida, instead of chasing less likely states like North Carolina and Georgia.