Obama Infomercial Bounce?

Readers of my column know I'm always wary when people try to read significance into a single poll. Lately, Matt Drudge--and his band of lemming-like followers--has been pointing to an outdated Gallup model that shows, surprise, that the race for president is a statistical dead heat. Well, if we were to place any stock in that poll, the Gallup Daily (Traditional), as Drudge followers argue, then we might conclude that Barack Obama's infomercial gave him a huge bounce.

You see, the infomercial aired two days ago, when the poll showed a three-point race. Today, it has Obama up by 8 pts. Why no blaring Drudge headline, you may be asking yourself? Good question. Am I really arguing that the up-tick in the number reflects an infomercial bounce? No. I won't make Drudge's mistake just because I prefer Obama to McCain. There could be lots of reasons why a single poll finding shows something on a given day that have nothing to do with advertising. And since the poll did not specifically ask respondents about the Obama segment, we simply don't know. For reference sake, however, Gallup's poll of registered voters gives Obama an 11 pt. lead today. And it's poll of likely voters says Obama is up 9 pts. Both of the latter two show 2 pt. gains since the infomercial. Coincidence? Probably.

Of course, a national poll number doesn't mean much. This is a race for electoral votes now. On that score, McCain is losing badly. Both Pollster.com and Realclearpolitics.com agree: McCain's behind by more than 5 pts. in Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico. Those are red states he needs to win. He's also trailing by 9.5 in must-win Pennsylvania. Put in another way, even if McCain wins in every state where Obama has a lead of 5 points or less, McCain still loses the election.

In the coming days, keep your eyes on polling averages. While single polls may show where a trend is heading, they might just as well prove anomalous. When you hear someone pushing a single poll to push a point, you can bet that they're either doing so for partisan reasons, or they are simply ignorant as to how polls work.