Big Turnout Everywhere

Reuters

But uncertainty about the makeup of the new electorate, and whether that high turnout could shatter historic voting patterns or simply reinforce them, casts doubt over opinion polls showing Obama with a solid lead on McCain.

"The question of who turns out to vote is the key to who becomes the next president," said Steven Schier, a political analyst at Carleton College in Minnesota.

Obama is hoping a big boost among new and sporadic voters, particularly blacks and the young, will propel him beyond the total of 56 million ballots for Democrat John Kerry in 2004.

But McCain campaign officials said there is no evidence a higher turnout will fundamentally change the makeup of the electorate -- or, they hope, the outcome on Tuesday.

...

But he said turnout appeared to be higher in all demographic groups, potentially wiping out any advantages Obama gains from an increase in black and young voters.

There is no question that the minority vote will be historic, but there is some questioning about the youth vote, a quadrennial heartbreaker for Democrats, actually showing up this time.

And there is plenty of evidence that the increased turnout is, to confirm the McCain campaign, happening in all demographics. Here is my contribution from a personal observation.




This is from this morning, Warren County Ohio, at the courthouse taken by cell phone. If you can see it the line extends out from the courthouse straight to the end of the parking lot. The line wasn't moving fast or at all. This is an area that regularly votes 70% GOP, esp. in presidential elections. Lots of McCain bumper stickers.

Someone forgot to tell these folks that the election is over, they don't look very demoralized.