Predictions From Greg

Here's something else that can be added to the list:

Jobs and capital skedaddle by the container-load to foreign shores as the threat of punitive taxation and other regulation looms large. Slow motion attempts to stem the tide prove ineffective.

I'd call it a prediction, but it's already happening.

Greg wrote:

>4. One Party will sweep. The Founders would frown, but there
>will be a singular control of both elected branches of
>government after Election Day.

"The Founders" mostly didn't think there should be political parties at all. After the debacle of the presidential election of 1800, they bowed to reality. In any case, "singular control of both elected branches of government" was by far the norm before WWII or so, and the Republic didn't exactly founder (pun intended). Besides, a scant two predictions later, you're vitiating the specter of "singular control" with the specter of a "do-nothing Senate." Which may also be what the Founders had in mind, or at least the originators of the Senate cloture rules. (Thank you, Joe Lieberman.)


Bob added:

>Jobs and capital skedaddle by the container-load to foreign
>shores as the threat of punitive taxation and other
>regulation looms large.

Right, like the "punitive taxation" of a tax *break* for companies that add jobs in the U.S., rather than on "foreign shores."

>I'd call it a prediction, but it's already happening.

Exactly: it's already happening after six years of "singular control of both elected branches" by the Republicans, and eight additional years of GOP control of one branch.

Predictions are tricky but the this is a fact. The GOP is and have been the party of Watergate, Tricky Dick Nixon, the infamous G Gordy Liddy, Charles Keating, Karl Rove, and others that will try to win a Presidential election at all cost. Nothing should suprise anyone. The GOP is also the party of the Great Depression of 1929, the financial collapse of 1989 and 2008.

Cheney endorsing McCain is the final stake in the vampire's heart. McCain's campaign is like a mirage. After the votes are counted it will fade away. McCain will go into the jewelry business with Cindy while Sarah goes to jail.

Prediction-results will be 52% Obama, 38.5% McCain, 6% Ron Paul, 2% Nader, 1% Barr, .5%McKinney.

"Right, like the "punitive taxation" of a tax *break* for companies that add jobs in the U.S., rather than on "foreign shores."

************

Dr Jay, stick to the doctoring - or whatever it is you do. This stuff you don't understand.

Obama, the other day, stated that the reason companies are relocating to China is that they have a more modern infrastructure over there. Therefore, he's going to invest in a massive plan to update ours (at guess who's expense).

He's either completely clueless or he was attempting to BS whatever crowd it was he was speaking in front of.

If he's serious, that's going to increase EVERYONE's taxes and it's not remotely going to address why companies are moving jobs overseas. Unless you're a complete idiot, you know that.

If he was just BSing...well...then I guess the whole concept of "Change" is flim-flam as well.

To be honest, there's nothing anyone can do to stop the flow of jobs because, frankly, it's out of our hands. It has been since the mid-90's when this all started. We can no more demand that countries like China, India, Indonesia or Viet Nam pay fair wages, provide benefits and safe working conditions than we can demand that they all become God-fearing Christian solders or Packer fans.

I deal with this stuff on a daily basis. No amount of tax incentives can compensate for the difference in production costs. Even if it was believed that they were going to happen. And trust me, it isn't. Why would anyone believe it coming from a candidate that has proposed the reinstatement of the windfall profits tax?

It's not a Republican or Democrat thing. It's a survival thing. At this point, the absolute LAST thing that is needed is an incentive for businesses to further pull up stakes and head out of America. But that's exactly what's going on now and it's happening at a much heightened pace in anticipation of an even less friendly business climate. Brought to you by Barack Obama.

Bob: "Whatever it is [I] do" is work for a software company that's very much affected by outsourcing, etc., and by the general state of the economy and the environment for business. I mostly agree with you that "It's not a Republican or Democrat[ic] thing," but about little else in your post. And you don't seem to agree with that part yourself, because the entire rest of your post is devoted to claims that it *is* a "Democrat thing." (I guess after Iraq, the right can't talk about "Democrat wars" anymore.) I may be wrong about some economic things, but I do know that historically, Democratic presidents have been better for "the economy" (by a whole host of measures) than Republican ones.

>Why would anyone believe it coming from a candidate that has
>proposed the reinstatement of the windfall profits tax?

True, I don't believe much that comes from Sarah Palin either (;-).

Seriously, if you don't believe what Obama says he's going to do, why do you believe what McCain says? (When he says anything about the economy at all other than that he doesn't understand it.) Whichever one is elected is going to have to deal with a much worse economy than he thought just a few months ago, and I don't see that just eliminating earmarks (a puny $18 billion, no doubt including a lot of worthwhile "babies" along with truly wasteful "bathwater") is going to do the trick.

TO GREGG & BRANDON:

Here are my predictions:

9. Nov. 4th. Election too close to call...

10. Nov. 5th. McCain/Palin ticket win by a slight margin.

11. Nov. 5th. Obama Camp ask for a recount.

12. Nov. 5th. Recount reveal McCain/Palin still winners by slight margin.

13. Nov. 6th. Obama Camp demand a second recount.

14. Nov. 6th. Late evening Obama makes his concession speech and pleads for calm.

15. Country breathes a sigh of relief and tries to forget the day when someone running under the banners of "hope and change" turned this country into its most racially divided since the days of civil rights and segregation.

16. All of the Political Machine pundits were fired for inciting race relations and just plain spreading hate and stupidity. Including Ms. Deborah Hastings of Associated Press -- whose article entitled: DIRTY TRICKS ON VOTERS..." with it very Democrat Party slant will also be fired for trying to turn the undecided and Independents to Obama. Shame of you Deborah... your article backfired and as you surely saw with all the emailed comments... they saw right through your little scheme. SHAME SHAME, AND SHAME ON THE ASSOCIATED PRESS! WOW. THIS CONSPIRACY IS LARGER THAN I THOUGHT.

17. Cable's MSNBC-TV losses its FCC license for its nonpartial news coverage and the financial support of a particular candidate.

18. NBC-TV is converted into a retro channel ... where they show old Saturday Night Live shows... and think about the old days when McCain/Palin were the underdogs and they had actual sponsors.

19. All future candidates running for office will be screened by a non-sectarian, non-government panel of Democrats, Independents and Republicans before they can run.

20. All medical records submitted must be longer than a one page letter that simply says: "in excellent health." (OBAMA).

21. Obama's aunt will have been deported back to Kenya and he would have suffered a fine for knowing and not telling the authorities (under the Patriot Act he actually commited a crime of Aiding and Abeting) since we are a nation in war.

23. This country will treat women candidates with respect for their ability and their intelligence and not based on the color of their pantsuits (Hillary) or the quality of their own personal clothing (Sarah).

22. THAT WE ALL WILL GET BEHIND THE NEW PRESIDENT AND PUT THIS HATE BEHIND US AND BECOME THE GREAT NATION WE WERE ONCE AGAIN.

TO GREGG & BRANDON:

Here are my predictions:

9. Nov. 4th. Election too close to call...

10. Nov. 5th. McCain/Palin ticket win by a slight margin.

11. Nov. 5th. Obama Camp ask for a recount.

12. Nov. 5th. Recount reveal McCain/Palin still winners by slight margin.

13. Nov. 6th. Obama Camp demand a second recount.

14. Nov. 6th. Late evening Obama makes his concession speech and pleads for calm.

15. Country breathes a sigh of relief and tries to forget the day when someone running under the banners of "hope and change" turned this country into its most racially divided since the days of civil rights and segregation.

16. All of the Political Machine pundits were fired for inciting race relations and just plain spreading hate and stupidity. Including Ms. Deborah Hastings of Associated Press -- whose article entitled: DIRTY TRICKS ON VOTERS..." with it very Democrat Party slant will also be fired for trying to turn the undecided and Independents to Obama. Shame of you Deborah... your article backfired and as you surely saw with all the emailed comments... they saw right through your little scheme. SHAME SHAME, AND SHAME ON THE ASSOCIATED PRESS! WOW. THIS CONSPIRACY IS LARGER THAN I THOUGHT.

17. Cable's MSNBC-TV losses its FCC license for its nonpartial news coverage and the financial support of a particular candidate.

18. NBC-TV is converted into a retro channel ... where they show old Saturday Night Live shows... and think about the old days when McCain/Palin were the underdogs and they had actual sponsors.

19. All future candidates running for office will be screened by a non-sectarian, non-government panel of Democrats, Independents and Republicans before they can run.

20. All medical records submitted must be longer than a one page letter that simply says: "in excellent health." (OBAMA).

21. Obama's aunt will have been deported back to Kenya and he would have suffered a fine for knowing and not telling the authorities (under the Patriot Act he actually commited a crime of Aiding and Abeting) since we are a nation in war.

23. This country will treat women candidates with respect for their ability and their intelligence and not based on the color of their pantsuits (Hillary) or the quality of their own personal clothing (Sarah).

22. THAT WE ALL WILL GET BEHIND THE NEW PRESIDENT AND PUT THIS HATE BEHIND US AND BECOME THE GREAT NATION WE WERE ONCE AGAIN.

Dr Jay,

I'm not going to copy and paste because I assume you'll know what parts of your post I'm addressing.

At no point did I suggest it was a Democrat thing. What I did suggest was that Obama's stated positions and much of what he's said in the course of this race suggest that he takes a very left-leaning view of business in general and that he doesn't understand the global economy.

I will state again, because I see it and deal with it on a daily basis, that there has been a marked uptick in the urgency of many businesses moving both production AND capital (and you can read that as ownership as well) off shore in anticipation of an Obama victory.

A couple points, again:

Infrastructure is NOT the problem.

Short of adopting protectionist polices, no one is going to stop the flow of jobs. That will either occur "naturally" when a balance is achieved between the nations involved - i.e., when wage rates and standard of living become essentially even from county to country. Or it won't happen and some nations will fall.

Anything at this point that expedites the movement of capital and jobs (ie, a more hostile business environment) prolongs and and decreases the chances of such a balance being achieved. Higher taxes, misguided government intervention in the market place (mandated "green" industries when demand for such doesn't warrant their creation, for instance), punitive taxes and legislation are a few of the things that fall into that category.

When I go to the voting booth, I'm voting against whichever candidate I feel is most likely to champion those types of policies. I don't care if they're Republican or Democrat.

It just so happens that, in most cases, they're going to be Democrats.

And, for sure, Obama is one of those candidates.

Bob --

Thanks for the clarifications. I respect your opinions, and whatever experience stands behind them. I disagree with a lot of them, based on my own experience, study, and analysis. But "that's what makes horse races," or elections.


Best wishes,
jay