Trust Joe Lieberman to be Himself

A lot of debate about Joe Lieberman focuses on whether the Democrats can trust him to fall in line with the party if they show mercy on the renegade Senator who campaigned tirelessly, and some say unscrupulously, against President-elect Obama. Last month, Steven Benen posted an account of the grievances against Lieberman.

How can the Democrats allow him to keep the chairmanship of the Homeland Security Committee? When party loyalty conflicts with his own political ambitions, Lieberman will favor Lieberman every time.

This is precisely why Democrats should feel pretty comfortable trusting Lieberman. They can, at least, trust Lieberman to try to survive politically by winning re-election in 2012.

In 2006, when he lost the Democratic primary to Ned Lamont, Lieberman did what he had to do to survive. He left the Democratic Party and managed to win the seat as an third party independent, relying heavily on Republican support, and quite a bit of support from the Democratic Party, including Obama.

Lieberman saw Lamont's primary victory as a sign of things to come in Connecticut. He could not continue to support his brand of hyper-aggressive foreign policy in Iraq and Iran and expect to win this reliably blue state the next time his Senate seat was up. His path to victory in 2006 would not be there for him again in 2012.

Lieberman clearly needed a lifeline out of the Senate and John McCain's campaign was the perfect vessel. He could forge a close alliance with McCain, help him win the election, then sew up a high-level position for the next four years, or longer, in the executive branch.

That gambit didn't play out for Lieberman, so now he has only one choice. He must convince the people of Connecticut that he is the same old Joe they voted for in the first place. He has a lot of convincing to do. A Research 2000 poll conducted for Daily Kos earlier this week, showed that among likely voters, Lieberman's job approval was down to 36 percent.

With numbers like that, Lieberman only has one choice for the next four years. He has to move to the left, and he has to do it fast. Given his vulnerability with the Connecticut voters, it wouldn't surprise me if Joe Lieberman turns out to be among the strongest allies Barack Obama has in the U.S. Senate.