Democrat Divisions Could Spell Republican Opportunity in New Congress

When the new Congress is sworn in early next year, Republicans in both Houses will have much smaller caucuses and correspondingly lesser influence over legislation. While it increasingly looks like Republicans will maintain the 40 seats necessary to stage a filibuster and block Democratic initiatives in the Senate, House rules provide no such power for the minority. Democrats will be able to pass virtually any bill they wish, if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) can keep her troops in line. That task may be a daunting one, however, as the larger Democratic majority contains representatives from a diverse collection of factions within the party, which oftentimes have competing interests and beliefs.

A spokesman for Pelosi tried to paint the challenge in a positive light, noting that the larger Democratic majority gives the Speaker more margin for error. "Yes we will have differences, but having a larger majority gives us a chance to build consensus," the spokesman said. "To build consensus, you don't need unanimity." True enough, but which Democratic faction will volunteer to have its concerns ignored first is another matter.

Republicans realize the bind that Democrats will be in, even if they do not see it yet themselves, and are looking to capitalize. Michael Steel, spokesman for Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH), said that Democratic struggles to keep the caucus pulling in the same direction could work to the Republicans' advantage. Steel cited global warming regulations as a potential wedge issue for Democrats.

"When you have to actually live with the consequences of the policy, it's much, much tougher [to legislate]. Do Democrats really want to hamstring U.S. manufacturers with new climate change regulations in the current economic climate?"

There are many geographic and philosophical fault lines within the Democratic caucus, but the basic split boils down to ultra-left wing liberals, like Pelosi, versus more moderate liberals, like Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD). The more radical members of the caucus occupy many of the powerful positions, like Henry Waxman (D-CA) as the Chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee, and Charlie Rangel (D-NY) as the Chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee, which sets tax policy. The rank and file of the caucus is composed of more moderate Democrats from Southern and Midwestern states. These moderates cannot always toe the liberal line set by the leadership for fear of angering constituents in their conservative leaning districts. That could mean more trouble than expected for Democrats in enacting their agenda. Republicans will try to peel off various factions from the Democratic majority, while holding their membership in line, to defeat various policy proposals. Oddly enough, the Democrats increased majority may turn out to be the Republicans greatest strength.