Franken Suffers Major Setback in Minnesota Recount

You're not good enough. You're not smart enough, and dog-gone-it Al, sane people just don't like you!

Good, the last thing we need is Franken in the Senate. He's a clown and we have enough clowns in the senate already.

Call me crazy, but I think you are a tad bit obsessed with this Senate race, Caleb.

I don't think Caleb's obsessed, he's following up on a story for pity's sake! I for one am interested in this race. There's alot at stake here for the Dems. I myself am torn though. I hate to see another few years of nothing getting done in the senate because the Dems & Reps can never agree. But the thought of Franken in the senate....ugh! I'm leaning towards hoping he loses. I have to agree with David T., there are enough clowns in the senate. But really David T., the senate is the only place where Franken could be successful as a clown.

Franken in the Senate - OH NO, NO, NO!!!!!
Couldn't the democrats find a better candidate than Franken? He is a know nothing clown!!!!
I'm a democrat, but Franken should lose.

Wow Caleb. I thought the MN SOS was "highly partisan" and linked to ACORN? I guess when you actually pay attention to facts, rather than your own spin and blind hatred for Franken, you can get it right.
By the way, I agree with the board on this one...

I think that with out the absentees - Franken will lose. However, I think the spread will probably be under 200. The reason why it now stands at +243 for Coleman is because despite Caleb's attempts to convince you otherwise, the Coleman camp has made the most absurd challenges. If the Franken bubble is completely filled in, but there is a dot in the Coleman bubble, they claim the intent was for Coleman. Also, they have even challenged clear Franken votes for no other reason than the voters also voted for McCain! This is part of Coleman's attempt to taint the process. IF they lose, they want it to look like the canvassing board decided this by rejecting their challenges.

Franken on the other hand (while making many absurd challenges himself) knows that the likely hood of him over taking Coleman on a straight recound is remote, so his tactic is to sue over the absentees.

You see folks, Caleb wants you to believe only the Franken side is absurd and shrewed. The fact is they both are.

Not surprisingly, Nate Silver, who has also been obsessing over this race, has something to say about the latest development too. Also not surprisingly, it's much more reality-based.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/minnesota-canvassing-board-punts-on.html

To sum up:

(1) Short of a Franken lawsuit, the Canvassing Board may still rule that the counties have to count the "fifth pile" absentee ballots -- those whose rejection was not for any of the four reasons that MN law gives for rejecting them. One county (Itasca) appears to be preparing to count these on its own.

(2) The number of "fifth pile" ballots (rejected due to "human error" rather than on valid legal grounds) may be between 500 and 1000 out of the total of 12,000 rejected absentee ballots. If the "human errors" were random (and there's no reason to believe they weren't), Franken couldn't expect to make up anywhere near 200 votes out of 1000, thus giving the lie to John Fund's contention (WSJ: Caleb gives the link above), based on the 12,000 number, that Franken was "counting on" the rejected absentee ballots.

(3) The Franken campaign estimates (and Nate's analysis agrees) that the margin would be "within 84 votes" if all ballot challenges are rejected. That's clearly an easier number to make up out of 1000 absentee ballots than 200 would be. Also, it's at least possible (as Nate suspects and DaveS99 above states) that more of Coleman's challenges are of the type more likely to be rejected -- ballots that both the machine and the initial hand recounter thought had legal votes for Franken, but Coleman challenged anyway. A combination of these two factors could give Franken a win without a lawsuit.

So now you don't like someone because of their job? If Franken was a garbage man or a bank president would that then be acceptable? I'm a Minnesotan we elect the best candidate..without the snob appeal the rest of you have!!