Blagojevich Fallout: Special Election for Obama's Open Seat

The state's top two legislative leaders Tuesday said they will move fast to seize control of the process of selecting a replacement for Barack Obama in the U.S. Senate, taking that power away from Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

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Though a special election technically would leave the decision in the hands of voters, it also would help well-known, well-funded potential contenders because of the difficulty of mounting a state-wide election on short notice. That could work to the advantage of several area members of Congress who have expressed interest in Mr. Obama's seat, including Democrats Jesse Jackson Jr., Luis Gutierrez and Jan Schakowsky.

A quick special election also could draw interest from one top Republican, north suburban U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk.

There are several possibilities now:

1. Blagojevich defiantly stays in office. The legislature impeaches him; Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn becomes governor and appoints Obama's successor. Democrats worry about Quinn's judgment here, but they might attempt to prevail on him to pick someone acceptable.

2. Blagojevich stays in office, but the impeachment is stalled until four weeks from now, and then, because a new general assembly would have to begin the proceedings anew, Blagojevich appoints a successor; the U.S. Senate refuses to seat that person.

3. A special election is called, Blagojevich signs the bill; or he vetoes it, the legislature overrides the veto and a date is set; some Democrats in the state believe that this scenario will benefit Republican Mark Kirk, because Democrats will have a nasty, long, primary season to fight about Blagojevich and who was closest to him. Kirk will probably have a clear field, lots of money, and a very simple change/anti-corruption message.

4. Blagojevich resigns; Quinn appoints a successor