Michael Steele Ouster Rumor Real or Manufactured?

Michael Steele's tenure as RNC chair could be over before it really begins, if recent reports are true. Anonymous Republican sources have told 2 different outlets that Steele's ouster may be imminent. First, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver had this on Monday:

According to multiple former high-level RNC staffers familiar with the dynamics involved, Steele is unlikely to survive in the post if favored Republican Jim Tedisco loses his open-seat race to Democrat Scott Murphy.

Then, Taegan Goddard's Political Wire had this yesterday:

Republican insiders tell Political Wire that a no confidence vote on RNC Chairman Michael Steele is likely to be called after the NY-20 special election on March 31 -- regardless of whether Republicans win the seat or not.

Goddard goes on to drop a casual tidbit that has my olfactory rodent detector at red alert:

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Katon Dawson, who came in second in the January RNC vote, is said to be quietly organizing a vote and is getting the support of several state party chairmen who want to dump Steele.

Isn't this about the neatest bit of zeroing-in you've seen in awhile? It's almost as though Nate Silver's source mumbled part of his leak, and had to call Goddard to get the rest of it out.

So, who's floating this rumor? It's obviously supposed to look like Dawson (despite his denial), pushing the ball by giving the impression that the votes to oust Steele are already there.

The execution here is far too clumsy, however, and fails to take into account the massive PR problem that would result from replacing Steele with Dawson.

If you recall, Katon Dawson was rendered somewhat radioactive by his involvement with a whites-only country club (not to be confused with Chip Saltsman, rendered radioactive by his involvement with Rush Limbaugh's "Barack the Magic Negro" song). Replacing Steele, the first black RNC chair, with either of them would result in a public relations meltdown.

So who stands to benefit from this rumor? Well, Ken Blackwell would be an acceptable replacement for Steele, and has already shown a willingness to carry water for the likes of Limbaugh. However, Blackwell sits so far down in the line of succession, he'd have to take out half the RNC to get the job. It would be more evil than ambitious.

That leaves Steele. This could be a move by the current RNC chair to force other top GOP officials to go on the record in support of him. It's already having that effect. Here's Katon Dawson's statement:

I support Michael Steele. Our Committee elected him knowing that he can lead us during this critical time for our Party. The people behind this anonymous rumor are clearly intent on dividing the Republican National Committee and our Party at a time when we need to be united.

Or to unite them behind the beleaguered Steele.

This may seem like a risky strategy. Floating this idea himself could backfire on Steele, as the RNC members could just say, "OK, let's oust him."

That idea might not look so rosy to them after a new round of Katon Dawson whites-only country club stories. A little-noticed fact in this drama is that, on the eve of the election for RNC chair, Pajamas Media published a fresh story about Dawson's club kerfuffle. Let's see if there's a similar coincidence this time around.

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