Economic Uncertainty Drives Obama's Poll Numbers Lower Than George W. Bush's

In an article in Friday's Wall Street Journal, Democratic pollster Douglas E. Schoen and independent pollster Scott Rasmussen analyze President Barack Obama's recent polling numbers and conclude that the new Administration is quickly polarizing America. The surprising results show that President Obama's net approval rating is actually lower than President George W. Bush's at the same point in his presidency.

Polling data show that Mr. Obama's approval rating is dropping and is below where George W. Bush was in an analogous period in 2001. Rasmussen Reports data shows that Mr. Obama's net presidential approval rating -- which is calculated by subtracting the number who strongly disapprove from the number who strongly approve -- is just six, his lowest rating to date.

Overall, Rasmussen Reports shows a 56%-43% approval, with a third strongly disapproving of the president's performance. This is a substantial degree of polarization so early in the administration. Mr. Obama has lost virtually all of his Republican support and a good part of his Independent support, and the trend is decidedly negative.

A detailed examination of presidential popularity after 50 days on the job similarly demonstrates a substantial drop in presidential approval [for Obama] relative to other elected presidents in the 20th and 21st centuries. The reason for this decline most likely has to do with doubts about the administration's policies and their impact on peoples' lives.

Schoen and Rasmussen go on to cite polling data from Gallup to make the case that it is Americans' fears about the economy, and President Obama's plans for pulling the country out the recession in particular, that is causing the president's poll numbers to drop precipitously. Overwhelming majorities of Americans say that they are worried that Obama will not be able to turn the economy around with his policies, and they have little faith in the policies themselves.

The Obama Administration reads polls, too. And doubtlessly they have picked up on some of the same trends. That could be the reason behind the sudden shift in President Obama's outlook on the economy. After weeks of warnings that the economy was teetering on the brink of catastrophe, the president abruptly changed direction and declared that the fundamentals of the economy are, "sound." President Obama maintains a high level of personal approval, but his policies are strongly disfavored by large majorities of Americans, as Schoen and Rasmussen show. The Administration hopes that President Obama's new-found confidence will translate into better results not just for the economy, but for his poll numbers as well.

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