NY20 Special Election - Referendum on Obama?

Unless you're from upstate New York, you likely have never heard of Jim Tedisco, R, or Scott Murphy, D They're the two men running against each other to fill the U.S. House seat vacated by Kirsten Gillibrand when she ascended to Hillary Clinton's Senate seat. The special election will be held next Tuesday.

Well, many people in New York's 20th congressional district sure have heard of them. I was visiting my parents upstate, in Clifton Park, this weekend for the second time in the past few weeks. I went to school there in the Shenendehowa School District for nine wonderful years (well, in hindsight, grades 4 through 6 were far from wonderful, but that's a whole other story). Anyway, "Scott Murphy" and "Jim Tedisco" for Congress signs seem to be stuck in the ground every 10 feet. You can't watch TV without being inundated with campaign ads focusing on the economy and AIG every other commercial break. They're on the radio, too. I was at the local Panera taking advantage of the free WiFi and saw two high-school kids putting political fliers on cars in the parking lot. My sister, who paid little attention to politics until she heard Barack Obama utter the words "stimulus package," all of a sudden knows Gillibrand's name and is talking about how she's sick of the Murphy-Tedisco battle.

Obama himself weighed in, just this week endorsing Murphy - the Democrat, so not surprising. Politico says Vice President Joe Biden recorded a radio ad for Murphy Wednesday, while the DNC is sending his way another $5,000 on top of the $5,00) already tossed into his coffers.






"Scott Murphy is the right candidate for Upstate New York to turn the economy around and create jobs," Obama said. "He has shown he's willing to take a stand for the people in his district by supporting the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act to get Upstate New York's economy moving again."

Ahhh, yes, the economy. After all, this is what this race is boiling down to - what side of the stimulus package the candidates are on and broader economy issues. People upstate, like in many other parts of the country, are hurting. And I'm not talking about laid-off Wall Street executives. I'm talking about teachers aides and other school workers laid off in my district, among others. Then you've got the 8,900 workers Gov. David Paterson announced this week would get the ax, just making him less popular than he already was.

I saw a huge sign on the outside of a paint store in Albany this week that said "We'll take your stimulus," while a woman sitting behind me at Panera was telling her lunch buddies how she'd love to buy a house if she could only get a bank loan. What was supposed to be some sort of chain restaurant has been sitting unfinished for months on Rt. 146. I'm not sad about it - the town's got enough chains, but it's still a testament to the fact that finishing the darn thing likely wasn't in the cards after the economy took a turn for the worst, so it's sitting there like an eyesore.

Murphy seems reluctantly supportive of the stimulus, while Tedisco joined the chorus of congressional Republicans saying it's too wasteful. A March 12 Siena College poll showed Tedisco leading Murphy, 45-41, while Murphy seems to be bringing in more cash. Another SRI study shows that a whopping 81 percent of New Yorkers polls anticipate the national financial crisis will have a "very" or "somewhat serious" impact on their households.

USA Today says this race will give us a glimpse at how Obama's economic policies may play out on the campaign trail in 2010. Then there's this, from The Wall Street Journal today:

"The House race "is turning into an early referendum on the Obama administration's economic agenda, especially the $787 billion economic-stimulus package approved largely along party lines in February ...The race has become a high-intensity battle, in part because it will serve as a trial balloon on the political impact of the stimulus vote ahead of next year's midterm elections. Money is pouring into the district from both party's campaign operations, as well as from outside interest groups."

The Rothenberg Political Report says the race is a tossup, and no doubt it will be close. Upstate New Yorkers likely will be glad when it's over - but they'll still be holding their breath as to just how much the winner can do to help them.