GOP Looks to Begin Comeback in New York Special Election

Both national parties will be looking at the results in a rural New York House district special election taking place today for a glimpse at what may happen in the 2010 Congressional elections. But for the Republican Party, the stakes are especially high. Voters in New York's 20th Congressional district will choose a replacement for former Representative Kirsten Gillibrand (D), who was selected by New York Governor David Patterson (D) to fill the Senate seat vacated by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D). Democrat Scott Murphy is vying to hold the seat for the Democrats against a strong challenge from Republican State Representative Jim Tedisco (right). Polls, which once showed Tedisco comfortably in front, now show Murphy with a slight lead.

With Republicans outnumbering Democrats on the voter registration rolls by 70,000 (.pdf), NY-20 was a relatively safe Republican district until 2006. Gillibrand won the district that year with 53% of the vote as part of the national electoral wave that swept Democrats into full control of Congress for the first time since 1994. Gillibrand won reelection with 62% of the vote in 2008 before being tapped for the Senate.

Republicans are counting on several factors to help return the district to their side of the aisle. Chief among those is that President Obama will not be on the ticket, which should help to lower Democratic turnout. Second, Republicans are banking on public dissatisfaction with the economy and increasing federal spending under the Democratic Congressional majority. Lastly, Republicans hope to rida a wave of voter anger at the AIG bailouts to victory this evening. Tedisco has charged that Murphy supported for the economic stimulus bill, which contained a provision that protected the AIG bonuses.

This is the first election since President Barack Obama and the expanded Democratic majorities in Congress came into power in Washington. Republicans hope that by winning the special election in New York, they can set the tone for a potential comeback in 2010. Immediately after the disastrous Election Day 2008, the Republican Party took solace in going three for three in post-election runoff contests. Prior to their takeover of Congress in 2006, Democrats similarly won three special elections in Republican territory, a harbinger of things to come. Republicans are looking to pull off the same feat, starting tonight in upstate New York.

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