What the American People Think About Obama

2 years ago

0 Comments Say Something »

Text Size

Executive Editor

Assessing a president's effectiveness after 100 days on the job may be an artificial-and highly subjective-undertaking, but measuring how the American public views the new chief executive is a virtual science.

The Gallup Poll has surveyed the citizenry on their views of every president since Franklin Roosevelt, using the same question, in identical language: Do you approve/disapprove of the job Barack Obama (or Harry Truman or Gerald Ford...or whomever) is doing as president?

In the world of social science, this is simplicity itself. Only the name changes, the beauty of this neutrally worded question being that we can easily compare this president to his predecessors. So how does Obama stack up against some of the ghosts of previous Oval Offices at this stage in his administration? Let's go to the tape:

We see that John F. Kennedy had nearly three-quarters of the American people with him at this point. Dwight Eisenhower and Jimmy Carter had approval ratings around 70 percent-the highest of the post-war presidents other than JFK. Bill Clinton's was the lowest, at 55 percent. The Bushes, father and son, were only slightly higher.

What does this tell us? For starters, it appears that the American people are more deliberate in their long-term judgments, despite the rush among the punditry and professional politicians for instant analysis. Eisenhower won re-election in 1956 easily, yes, but Carter was buried four years after he recorded his proud 69 percent rating at the 100 day mark. Clinton won re-election with a comfortable plurality in a three-man race, but didn't get 50 percent of the popular vote.

The Gallup snapshot also tells us that events do matter. A romping victory in the Persian Gulf War didn't help George H.W. Bush (57 percent after 100 days) win re-election because a recession intruded. George W. Bush (58 percent) benefited both from an attack on U.S. soil and the reluctance of Americans to change commanders-in-chief while troops are in the field. The economy crippled Carter, while the Iranian hostage crisis underscored voters' concerns about the efficacy of his management style. And so it goes.

The lessons for Obama, with his 63 percent average approval rating? Perhaps it's simply that positive results in the battles that lie ahead are what matter most.

"President Obama is off to a solid start as president, as far as his job approval ratings are concerned," says Jeffrey M. Jones, managing editor of the Gallup Poll. "How that process plays out, whether the economy shows definite signs of improvement, and how well Obama deals with ongoing international challenges, will determine whether his ratings stay strong or begin to show decline."

Tagged: 100 days, 100Days, barack obama, BarackObama

Our New Approach to Comments

In an effort to encourage the same level of civil dialogue among Politics Daily’s readers that we expect of our writers – a “civilogue,” to use the term coined by PD’s Jeffrey Weiss – we are requiring commenters to use their AOL or AIM screen names to submit a comment, and we are reading all comments before publishing them. Personal attacks (on writers, other readers, Nancy Pelosi, George W. Bush, or anyone at all) and comments that are not productive additions to the conversation will not be published, period, to make room for a discussion among those with ideas to kick around. Please read our Help and Feedback section for more info.