Democrats Now Boast Party ID Edge

A new Gallup poll released Friday foretells of significant electoral difficulties for the demographically-challenged Republican Party: Democrats now possess a party identification advantage across every age group, from 18- to 85-years-old.

According to the polling firm, the partisan gap is most evident among voters in their 20s, 40s and 50s -- Generation Y and the Baby Boomers, respectively, both of which voted overwhelmingly for President Barack Obama in 2008. Party salience, however, decreases among middle-aged and elderly voters -- the Generation X and senior bases to which Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) attributed his modest 2008 election gains. There, the GOP only trails Democrats by single digits.

To be fair, the numbers possess only moderate intrinsic value. Party identification is hardly a perfect predictor of voting behavior, especially at a time when split-ticket voting is common. Moreover, it is difficult, if not impossible, to generalize across an entire, fractured electorate. Universal traits, like age, mean very little when gerrymandered Congressional districts and disparate states determine electoral outcomes.

What the numbers do affirm, however, is the ubiquitous link between age and experience. As Gallup noted, the political, social and economic circumstances under which each age group gained its right to vote have likely shaped those groups' political party preferences. The Baby Boomers, for example, matured during the fight for civil rights and the war in Vietnam; despite a rocky history, the Democratic Party now suits their prerogatives well. Generation Y, similarly, identifies most closely with September 11 and George W. Bush, who was essentially their "first president." Their strong support for Obama is more likely than not to return in 2012.

But it is the forthcoming group of voters -- those teenagers, still unaccustomed to the civic sphere, who are growing up amid an awful recession -- that should truly concern Republicans. These soon-to-be voters are presently revising their college plans, coping with the loss of their temporary or summer employment -- and, more importantly, watching their parents struggle with similar sacrifices. They comprise a generation that has an acute understanding of the relationship between the economy and the self, and perhaps soon, the markets and the federal government.

Efforts to connect with these voters and frame the national conversation about the economy are thus important to both the political parties and their long-term agendas; the parties' livelihoods are at stake. Unfortunately, the GOP historically lags behind Democrats at such generation-specific marketing. Regarding the economy, the GOP's attacks have not resonated, their support on those issues is dwindling and their counter-policies number nil. This is doubly troubling, considering that fiscal conservatism has replaced social conservatism as the party's raison d'etre. Add to that identity crisis a historic disconnect with young voters -- both substantively and technologically -- and it is easy to understand why Democrats dominated in 2008 and may continue to do so in 2010 and 2012.

Of course, political time is paradoxically slow and fast. Campaigns drag on for months, yet campaign gaffes go public almost immediately. Changes in today's electorate mean nothing until tomorrow's election, but a lack of political foresight is a terminal illness. All of this is to suggest that Republicans, once again, desperately need cohesion -- a better strategy for dealing with voters, especially younger ones, and a message that possesses some degree of universality. Until then, the party is doomed to struggle among every demographic, regardless of what the polls suggest.