Suddenly Arlen Specter Looks Like a Loyal Democrat

During an appearance on Meet the Press earlier this month in the wake of his dramatic party switch, Arlen Specter repeatedly denied telling President Obama that he would be a "loyal Democrat". Specter initially looked intent on maintaining his independence from his new party. He voted against Obama's budget. He maintained that he would not vote to end debate on EFCA and he said he remained opposed to the confirmation of Dawn Johnsen to head the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel.

Now that a little time has gone by, Specter looks like he's starting what some thought would be an inevitable drift to the left in advance of a potential challenge in the 2010 Democratic primary. Though Democrat Joe Torsella pulled out of the race last week, a decision looms from Rep. Joe Sestak, a potentially formidable opponent who is popular among progressives wary of Specter.

The only surprise seems to be that Specter's move to the left is happening so fast. Drawing attention to the shift seems perilous, but in truth, the more visible his move left is, the more it is likely to help him with the Democratic electorate.

Five Thirty Eight blogger Nate Silver crunched the numbers--that's what he does--and found that Specter is now 67% Democrat. Specter has sided with the Democrats on 10 of the 15 votes on which the Democratic and Republicans have split along partisan lines.Subtlety is not really all that important from Specter's perspective, so he seems to have abandoned it with two high profile shifts on EFCA and Johnsen.

Talking Points Memo blogger Brian Beutler writes, "Yesterday [Specter] announced that he and Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) are nearing a compromise on EFCA. And yesterday, his staff confirmed to me that he is no longer dead set against Johnsen." The Plum Line blogger Greg Sargent reports that Specter "remains undecided on the question" of the upcoming cloture vote that could break the GOP's filibuster of Johnsen's nomination.