A new Mason-Dixon poll for the Las Vegas Review-Journal shows Sen. Harry Reid, the Senate Majority Leader, in real trouble with his own voters back home, but Republicans have yet to capitalize on Nevadans' chilly feelings toward their senior senator. Reid is up for reelection in 2010.

When pollsters asked 635 likely Nevada voters if they would vote to send Reid back to the Senate if the election were held today, 45% said no, 35% said yes, and 17% said they would consider it.

The same poll showed Reid's favorability rating in Nevada at 38%, while his disapproval rating is at 50%.

The news gets worse for Reid you consider that leadership posts in Washington can hurt politicians at the polls back home. House Speaker Tom Foley lost his 1994 reelection campaign when his challenger hammered him with the slogan,"We need a listener, not a Speaker." Ten years later, Senate Democratic Leader Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD) came up short in South Dakota when his 2004 challenger, John Thune, successfully painted him as an out-of touch pol who had become a Washington insider.

Despite his poll numbers, several pieces of good news for Reid may keep him safely in the Senate. First and foremost, he has no high-profile Republican challenger. It's hard to lose if you don't have an opponent. Second, Reid has raised more than $7.5 million for the race and has a war chest of more than $5 million that will discourage any future comers.

Also, President Barack Obama carried Nevada by a huge 12-point margin in November and remains very popular there. The same RJ poll that showed Reid's personal struggles with likability showed the President at 55 % approval and just 30% disapproval. Finally, Obama's budget defunds the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste facility in Nevada. It's difficult to overstate how central Yucca Mountain is to the fortunes of the state's Congressional delegation. A victory on closing Yucca Mountain could only help Reid in the end.

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