Pew: Independent Voters Are Conflicted, Centrist and At a 70-Year High
Jill Lawrence
Senior Correspondent
Posted:
05/21/09
The Pew Research Center releases a massive new survey that tells us all kinds of things about our political landscape. The headline is that independent voters rule in the age of Obama.
Independents make up 39 percent of the electorate, according to the survey of 3,013 people in March and April. That's a 70-year high. Democrats are at 33 percent while Republicans are at 22 percent.
Republicans are at a "very low ebb," center director Andy Kohut said yesterday at a briefing. The survey shows GOP women are becoming Democrats while men are tending to move to the independent column. That has increased the gender gap between the two parties.
Another effect the survey found of the movement from GOP to independent: It's made the independent category more conservative when it comes to expanding the social safety net and getting the government more involved in the private sector.
At the same time, it found that independents are "much closer" to Democrats than Republicans on values issues such as race, gay rights, religion and national security. Kohut calls them "conflicted centrists."
The survey throws a wrench into the theory that the GOP is down to a very conservative nub. It shows that the breakdown of self-described conservatives, moderates and liberals within the party has not changed.
Kohut attributed the exodus from the GOP less to the party's ideas than to "perceived Republican failures in performance." Republicans are demoralized -- only 24 percent said their party is doing a good job upholding its principles. The party is also behind the times on demographics. It is aging and remains "steadfastly white and non-Hispanic," Kohut said.
Pew reprised a couple of questions from presidential election exit polls and found an enormous shift away from moral values as a voter concern. Asked what one issue would matter in their presidential vote, 10 percent said moral values, down from 27 percent in 2004. By contrast, economy/jobs rose from 21 percent in 2004 to 50 percent now.
Independents make up 39 percent of the electorate, according to the survey of 3,013 people in March and April. That's a 70-year high. Democrats are at 33 percent while Republicans are at 22 percent.
Republicans are at a "very low ebb," center director Andy Kohut said yesterday at a briefing. The survey shows GOP women are becoming Democrats while men are tending to move to the independent column. That has increased the gender gap between the two parties.
Another effect the survey found of the movement from GOP to independent: It's made the independent category more conservative when it comes to expanding the social safety net and getting the government more involved in the private sector.
At the same time, it found that independents are "much closer" to Democrats than Republicans on values issues such as race, gay rights, religion and national security. Kohut calls them "conflicted centrists."
The survey throws a wrench into the theory that the GOP is down to a very conservative nub. It shows that the breakdown of self-described conservatives, moderates and liberals within the party has not changed.
Kohut attributed the exodus from the GOP less to the party's ideas than to "perceived Republican failures in performance." Republicans are demoralized -- only 24 percent said their party is doing a good job upholding its principles. The party is also behind the times on demographics. It is aging and remains "steadfastly white and non-Hispanic," Kohut said.
Pew reprised a couple of questions from presidential election exit polls and found an enormous shift away from moral values as a voter concern. Asked what one issue would matter in their presidential vote, 10 percent said moral values, down from 27 percent in 2004. By contrast, economy/jobs rose from 21 percent in 2004 to 50 percent now.