North Korea Tests Nuke and President Obama, as Biden Predicted

President Obama released the following statement regarding reports that North Korea conducted an underground nuclear weapons test Monday morning, along with short-range missile launches:

Today, North Korea said that it has conducted a nuclear test in violation of international law. It appears to also have attempted a short range missile launch. These actions, while not a surprise given its statements and actions to date, are a matter of grave concern to all nations. North Korea's attempts to develop nuclear weapons, as well as its ballistic missile program, constitute a threat to international peace and security.

By acting in blatant defiance of the United Nations Security Council, North Korea is directly and recklessly challenging the international community. North Korea's behavior increases tensions and undermines stability in Northeast Asia. Such provocations will only serve to deepen North Korea's isolation. It will not find international acceptance unless it abandons its pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery.

The danger posed by North Korea's threatening activities warrants action by the international community. We have been and will continue working with our allies and partners in the Six-Party Talks as well as other members of the U.N. Security Council in the days ahead.

North Korea's nuclear test is also a test of the President. It is remarkably similar to comments made by Vice President Joe Biden in the waning days of the 2008 Presidential race. Biden said that the new President would face a manufactured crisis within the first six months of his administration.

This crisis may also illustrate the second part of Biden's prophecy, in which he indelicately asks for support even though "it's not gonna be apparent initially, it's not gonna be apparent that we're right."

In a situation like this, there are likely to be huge amounts of daylight between what the President does in public, and what happens behind the scenes. While many, myself included, will bang our heads on our collective desk at the thought of the UN trying to handle anything quickly and decisively, we should remember that appearances matter in diplomacy.

It is my hope that the President, while maintaining a face-saving veneer of partnership with the UN, will apply some metaphoric slaps upside the head behind closed doors. North Korea is obviously determined to shake up the status quo, and this engagement will set the new course for their relationship with the world.

Unfortunately, even if the UN bends quickly to the President's will, every decision on the menu carries with it considerable risk.

The most tempting of these is a show of force similar to the blockade of Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis. North Korea's actions certainly warrant this, but Kim Jong Il hasn't made it obvious that he has the common sense to blink first.

On the other hand, it will be too late to try this if North Korea succeeds in developing a nuclear arsenal. The central question here is "What is North Korea after?" If Kim Jong Il is trying to leverage the best deal he can out of his limited capability, then incentives along with sanctions might be the way to go. If he's simply determined to get a seat at the nuclear "big kids' table," then much stronger action might be warranted.

The President must certainly recognize that whatever combination of carrots and sticks is decided upon, they need to make their best offer now.

Tommy on: Daily Dose:

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