For Virginia Democrats, the Pressure's On

Democrats have won almost every big Virginia election since 2001 – installing two governors and two senators, and breaking a 40-year presidential losing streak by going for Barack Obama last year. The pressure is on to choose another winner Tuesday in a three-way gubernatorial primary, or risk setting back their party and their president.

The three primary rivals are utterly different in style and background. There's the energetic former Democratic National Committee ChairmanTerry McAuliffe, whose worldwide VIP and celebrity network starts with Bill and Hillary Clinton; Creigh Deeds, a small-town state senator who surged after an endorsement from the Washington Post editorial board; and Brian Moran, a former state legislative leader and brother of a congressman, who is trying to move past the others by playing a feisty offense and outflanking them on the left.

In the last few days, Moran and McAuliffe have started running TV ads in which each claims he is the strongest Democrat to take on former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell, the Republican nominee. Of course, nobody has a clue which of the trio really would be the strongest.

Two new polls show a burst of momentum for Deeds. But turnout is expected to be very low, meaning the outcome could hinge on who is best at prodding his supporters to vote.

One thing we can say for sure is that the November governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey (where Republican Chris Christie is trying to oust Gov. Jon Corzine) will be subjected to forensic political analysis. They're the only marquee races this year, and thus their outcomes will be dissected and interpreted beyond all reason for clues as to whether Republicans are rebounding or Obama's policies and appeal are holding up; whether Republicans are on the move in New Jersey, or changing demographics have finally made Virginia safe for Democrats.

McAuliffe, a Northern Virginia resident who chaired Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, started the primary race as the man to beat. But Deeds, whose speaking style is sometimes halting and who doesn't talk in some of his own TV ads, was in first place in five of six independent polls done since the May 21 Post endorsement. In the two latest, Deeds has jumped to double-digit leads.

The surge has his rivals worried. McAuliffe is calling in national chits. He trumpeted endorsements this weekend from Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (himself a former DNC chief) and the chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer – and campaigned across the state with Schweitzer. Bill Clinton made a last stop Saturday night for McAuliffe, visiting his McLean home for a fundraiser.

Why should Virginians care about what these outsiders say? All three, McAuliffe said Friday on WAMU-FM's "Politics Hour," are "validators" for his contention that Virginia needs him: a business executive who has created thousands of jobs, who hasn't been part of "the partisan battles in Richmond" and brings "a bold, big, fresh, new approach."

McAuliffe's personality and biography are larger than life, and so are some of his promises. And the Clinton name, so closely associated with him, does not seem to hold any magic for Virginia Democrats these days. Obama beat Hillary Clinton by 28 points in the presidential primary last year.

Still, there's no denying that McAuliffe works hard and has a creative approach. Just take one example, in a recent Washington Post story about how to carve out more slots for in-state students at Virginia's excellent colleges and universities. Deeds would spend $78 million to add more slots and Moran would rely on a better economy to bring in more tax revenues to finance additional slots. McAuliffe said the schools are failing to commercialize their research. He said they could generate money for slots and other uses by pursuing more patents.

McAuliffe and Moran closed out the race going after Deeds on nearly identical grounds. They both hammered at his vote for a higher gas tax and opposition to gun-control measures such as banning guns in bars and limiting gun purchases to one a month. "It's extreme," Moran says of Deeds' record on guns.

Guns are such a flashpoint in Virginia that New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg financed an ad attacking Bob McDonnell for opposing a requirement that dealers at gun shows do background checks on prospective buyers. The ad ran in April around the second anniversary of the Virginia Tech shootings – before the GOP had officially nominated McDonnell.

Deeds, from a rural county on the West Virginia border, says he owns "about seven hunting rifles" and a shotgun. He presents himself as the voice of reason, writer of a legislative compromise that got further than ever before toward requiring those checks at gun shows. "It's going to take somebody who comes from the part of the state where Second Amendment rights are highly regarded to create the consensus to bring common sense to this issue," he said on the "Politics Hour."

As for backing that gas tax, designed to ease gridlock in Northern and Eastern Virginia, Deeds says that's one of the reasons he got the Post endorsement: He isn't afraid to take positions that might disturb his constituents. He highlights another one, his support for abortion rights, in an ad running in liberal Northern Virginia.

McAuliffe told the Richmond Times-Dispatch over the weekend that Deeds could not beat McDonnell – a morsel circulated to political reporters Sunday by Moran's campaign. In fact, Deeds lost the 2005 attorney general race to McDonnell by 360 votes – or as Deeds puts it, 17 one-thousands of a percentage point. He says that proves he can win this year, given Virginia's increasing numbers of Democrats and the support the nominee will get from Obama and the DNC, now chaired by outgoing Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine.

Still, as of May 27, state records show Deeds had raised $2.8 million to $3.8 million for Moran and $7 million for McAuliffe. Moran has ties to officials throughout the state and a strong base in Northern Virginia, where he and his congressman brother Jim are well known. McAuliffe has worked on campaigns at every level for decades. He has by far the largest organization – 14 field offices compared with six for Deeds, for instance.

The homestretch activity includes frenetic get-out-the-vote tours across the state – 16 stops in three days for Deeds – and electability-themed ads from Deeds' opponents. McAuliffe's is called "Strongest." Moran's is called "Win in November."

Each of the three says he is the only candidate who can sustain the Democrats' long winning streak in Virginia. One of them will get a chance to prove it, and it won't be just his own reputation at stake. His president and his party will be along for the ride.