Paterson Tanks, Cuomo Soars Amid NY Chaos

ALBANY, N.Y. – Attorney General Andrew Cuomo announced this week that he had shut down a debt collection operation that was using "illegal scare tactics" on people across the nation. That same day, on local TV, a frustrated Gov. David Paterson lashed out at state senators now in their third week of a power struggle that has halted state business.

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There's no contest as to which Democrat has the more manageable job. Nor is there any contest about which one has a better image, or who at this point would win a gubernatorial primary. If, that is, Cuomo decides next year to run.

Cuomo's favorable rating is 71 percent in a new Siena Research Institute poll, to 31 percent for Paterson. A new Quinnipiac poll shows an even greater gulf – 73 percent favorable for Cuomo, 28 percent for Paterson. What's staggering, says Siena pollster Steven Greenberg, is that 62 percent of Republicans have a favorable view of Cuomo.

Not surprisingly, in a hypothetical primary contest held today, Cuomo would wallop Patterson 69 percent to 16 percent (Siena) or 57 percent to 20 percent (Quinnipiac).

The good news for Paterson: He seems to have arrested his freefall and there's time for him to try to turn things around. The bad news: He can't control what happens in the state Senate, and even if he could, it might not do him enough good.

Paterson is an accidental governor who came into office in March 2008 when former governor Eliot Spitzer resigned in a call-girl scandal. That inauspicious start was compounded days later when Paterson acknowledged extramarital affairs.

Still, the governor had perfectly fine approval ratings until the time came to pick a Senate successor to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. He made teasing and contradictory statements throughout a prolonged, clumsy, leaky process that just happened to involve two of the state's biggest names -- Caroline Kennedy and Cuomo, a former Clinton Cabinet secretary whose father was a three-term New York governor and whose ex-wife is Kerry Kennedy, daughter of Robert. Caroline Kennedy ultimately withdrew from the Senate sweepstakes, Paterson named then-Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, and his ratings began to fall.

During Paterson's search for a senator, "Cuomo was never out there campaigning for it. He never expressed disappointment that he didn't get it. He never got involved in fighting. He simply stayed on sidelines doing his job," says Greenberg.

Of course, the way Cuomo does his job is less sidelines, more center court. He's taken on corrupt practices in the areas of pensions, student loans, mortgages and health insurance. He's proposed and campaigned for a plan to consolidate local governments. This week he came to the rescue of golf-lovers upset about the no-refund, no-exchange policy on tickets to the rain-drenched U.S. Open.

As of Wednesday, Cuomo's office had issued 22 press releases this month about his achievements. In case you were wondering, that's twice as many as the 11 from California Attorney General Jerry Brown (running for governor) and nearly four times as many as the six from Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan (contemplating a run).

New York politics watchers say Cuomo's focus and demeanor reflect lessons of the past, particularly his loss to Carl McCall in a 2002 gubernatorial primary. "He's resisted the temptation ... to go 120 mph off in some direction or another," says political scientist Gerald Benjamin of the State University of New York at New Paltz. He's also lost "some of the personality issues that have been used to characterize him," Benjamin says. Such as? "Overly demanding, aggressive and unpleasant."

Paterson is pleasant and likeable, but he has not projected competence or command. Now the 31-31 deadlock in the state Senate, precipitated by a Democrat's switch to the GOP, has made New York an embarrassing symbol of dysfunction. And Paterson – who wants to see passage of property tax relief, gay marriage and other measures – is stuck trying to fix a mess he didn't create.

"The governor has no option but to get involved in the chaos, because he can only win if he produces solutions," says Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkopf.

Chaos seems like an understatement for what's been going on here since June 8. We're talking locked doors, shouting matches and hallway huddles to figure out if bills have passed or not. As Paterson counsel Peter Kiernan put it Wednesday, "The notion of two parties having dueling sessions, passing overlapping bills, it's just nuts." As in loud, simultaneous sessions competing with each other inside the chamber.

And what a chamber it is – gold chandeliers and burnished wood, marble pillars and arches, stained glass doors and windows, even a grandfather clock. And just outside the door, a gorgeous lobby complete with mosaic floor, green velvet couches, a bust of Franklin Roosevelt, a painting of young Assemblyman Theodore Roosevelt visiting the state Senate, and a statue of Robert Livingston, who was a delegate to the Continental Congress, administered the oath of office to George Washington and went on to negotiate the Louisiana Purchase.

Times are different now. Kiernan was personally delivering bills to Senate leaders so they wouldn't be able to say they didn't have the bills. Some did claim that earlier this week in what Paterson called "miscarriages of the truth."

Paterson has offered up respected mediators to resolve the impasse. He has suggested that the chief judge of the Court of Appeals preside temporarily over the chamber. He has called the Senate into "extraordinary session" and says he will call them in everyday until they get back to business. On Wednesday, he threatened to go to court to block senators' pay. Analyst Helen DesFosses of SUNY-Albany says Paterson has seemed "solomonic" and "statesmanlike."

And yet nearly a quarter of New Yorkers blame Paterson for the mess, about as many as blame Democrats or Republicans in the Legislature. Siena reports 63 percent say the state is going in the wrong direction – the most negative view in the five years of the poll.

Republicans are likely to have a strong gubernatorial candidate in 2010. The prospects include former congressman Rick Lazio (who lost the 2000 Senate race to Hillary Clinton) and former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani (who ran for president last year and had an op-ed in the New York Times on Wednesday about how to fix New York state government).

Right now Paterson looks like a sure loser. But that doesn't mean Cuomo is a sure competitor. Like McCall, who defeated Cuomo in the 2002 primary, Paterson is black – and racial politics in this state are a minefield.

"If you take on a black man in New York, there may be a price to pay for it, if that still holds. It was certainly the case in 2002," says Sheinkopf, who was working then for McCall. If Democrats want Cuomo to run, he says, they may have to get Paterson out – and the message is "going to have to come from the African-American community."

In the Siena poll, 30 percent of African-Americans said they wanted Paterson to run again while 44 percent said they would prefer someone else. By 48 percent to 35 percent, they said they'd prefer Cuomo to run for governor in 2010 rather than run for re-election as attorney general.

These sentiments and Paterson's standing may well change. It's a constant, though, that Paterson's job will continue to be harder than Cuomo's – and Cuomo is doing his job very well.