Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Popularity Problem

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has decided who is to blame for the unrest in Iran. Is it the officials who rigged the election totals so that many cities had voter turnouts of over 100 percent? The militia members who attacked the protesters in the streets? Himself? No, Ahmadinejad has decided the fault lies with Barack Obama.

On Thursday, Ahmadinejad accused Obama of interfering with the results of Iran's election and acting "similar to Bush." The comparison is puzzling for two such polar opposites in foreign policy, but, as he struggles to hold onto power, Ahmadinejad is hoping it will stick. Ahmadinejad didn't come to power until well into the second term of the Bush administration and has never had to deal with any other U.S. president. Now, for the first time, Ahmadinejad is facing an American president who is popular not only in the United States, but in the Middle East as well. And he has no idea how to do it.

The huge unpopularity of George W. Bush in Iran provided Ahmadinejad with a convenient distraction from internal turmoils. Even when his own popularity was sinking -- and it often was -- he had an even more distrusted enemy to turn public attention toward when the going got rough. But Obama began his term with a high level of good will in the Middle East, and since then a series of olive branches, including a video greeting to Iran and a visit to Cairo, have only propelled it higher. Ahmadinejad's old strategy of citing American interference won't work either at home or abroad with this administration.

In fact, this latest statement could be just another sign that his efforts to hold on to power are becoming increasingly desperate. Over at the Daily Beast, Reza Aslan says that unconfirmed reports are circulating throughout Iran of a possible runoff election between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Ahmadinejad and that Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani -- the man who heads the council with the power to oust ruling Ayatollah Ali Khamenei -- has reportedly been sending out feelers among the council. Though by no means a clear signal yet, indications are that Ahmadinejad's position of president, once seemingly so sure, could still slip from between his fingers.