Iran: A Government on the Verge?

As the rest of the world has watched the turmoil in Iran unfold, one of the takeaways for many people has been the ideological splits between Iran's government and Iran's people. But, as the crackdown has accelerated, the future of the dissidents has been looking more and more uncertain. Now, a split between the government and the politically pivotal clerics may be the critical leverage that finally forces not only the overturning of the election results, but maybe of the ayatollah as well.

The New York Times reports that Iran's politically influential group of clerics, the Association of Researchers and the Teachers of Qum, has released a rare statement saying that the elections, and by extension the new government, are illegitimate. It's the first time that the group has publically split with the official government line offered by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei -- and probably the most significant threat he's ever faced to his future as supreme leader of Iran.

With the clerics on one side and him on the other, Khamenei is suddenly in uncharted waters on how to maintain his hold on the government. He has already committed himself to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the winner. He has gone on record and appealed directly to the Iranian public, saying that not only were the results correct, but that the matter is closed -- thereby turning the election into not just a contest between candidates, but also a test of his authority. This essentially leaves him with two options: either Ahmadinejad takes the election or Khamenei admits he was wrong.

Admitting you were wrong has always been a tough nut for politicians to crack. In American politics, it may result in your opponents labeling you a flip-flopper -- a surprisingly effective slap-down, as John "I voted for it before I voted against it" Kerry can attest.

Khamenei, though, is not running for commander in chief. He's not running for anything -- he is supreme leader, with the authority of God supposedly whispered into his ear. And -- in case you're wondering why no charming biography featuring farms and family and son-of-a-millworker-style rhetoric is circulating -- it's because he doesn't need one. His credentials boil down simply to two things: God and the revolution. For a long time, the combination of the two was sufficient to keep him in power. But it looks like they could be equally dangerous for him to lean on now.