Iran's Protests: Why 2009 Won't Be a Repeat of 1999

Ten years ago Thursday, the world watched as students from Tehran University in Iran took to the streets in protest. It seemed to many as though history were repeating itself when protests -- which seemed to have been cooling in the face of a government crackdown -- began anew in Iran, both in commemoration of 1999 and in reaction to the recent election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. CNN estimates that Thursday's protest at Tehran University had 2,000-3,000 people when a clash with the state militia began.

The protests in 1999 lasted a week. The dissidents were jailed and some were tortured. Government officials, including then-President Mohammad Khatami, publicly railed against them. And the regime kept an even tighter hand on dissent after that. Already, though, protests in 2009 seem to have gone much further than protests 10 years ago. So, what's different?

Of course, the extra visibility of the current protests through social media such as Twitter and YouTube is important. But, the largest difference -- and the thing that may ultimately make the difference in the outcomes of 1999 and 2009 -- seems to be that dissidents are managing to be heard both outside of government and inside it. With officials forced to carry out at least the semblance of a recount, presidential candidates calling the election a fraud, and some highly placed political figures breaking with the official government line and questioning the legitimacy of the recent elections, protesters are in a better position than 10 years ago to sustain dissent.

Iran's protests in 1999 had an iconic image that people rallied around, much like they've now rallied around the video clip of Neda Soltan, who was killed last month during a protest. In 1999, Ahmad Batebi, a student at Tehran University, saw a friend get shot by the state militia. Batebi held a tee shirt to the wound, but could not stop the bleeding. A photographer snapped a picture of Batebi holding the shirt high above his head, an image that was quickly picked up around the world. He would spend the next eight years in prison.

Reza Aslan for the Daily Beast interviewed Batebi, who had this to say on the differences between the movements:
"The biggest difference between 1999 and 2009 is that the people are wiser and far more experienced at dealing with the regime. In 1999, we were hot and angry and unfocused. The protesters of today are much more calm and purposeful, more experienced. They know how to deal with the government."