One city block in Montgomery, Ala., tells almost everything there is to know about the challenge facing Rep. Artur Davis in his bid to become the state's governor in 2010.

On one corner of Dexter Avenue stands a monument to Jefferson Davis, president of the Confederate States of America. On another stands Dexter Avenue Baptist Church, home of the pulpit where Martin Luther King Jr. ministered for nearly six years. Casting a shadow over both is the state capitol, an enormous white Greek-revival building where Davis assumed the presidency of the Confederacy, where Gov. George Wallace took the oath of office four times, and where the Selma to Montgomery march ended in 1965.

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Inside the capitol is the office that Davis wants to occupy. But standing between the Democrat and the job he wants is the state's complicated racial history, his party's broken brand in the South, and Davis' own choice to run without the blessing of the state's political black power structure on the theory that following its playbook makes little sense for a candidate promising change.

The question that arises in nearly every conversation about Davis and the governorship in Alabama is, "Can he win?" With few exceptions, nobody seems to know.

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Artur Davis grew up in West Montgomery as an only child, raised by his mother and grandmother, in a part of town where he says "both sides of the track were wrong." He attended Jefferson Davis High School and went on to Harvard College and Harvard Law School, finishing with honors at both, and briefly meeting a fellow law student named Barack Obama.

After graduating from law school, Davis moved to Birmingham for jobs as a lawyer in private practice, a prosecutor, and eventually to run for Congress. His decision in 2000 to challenge Rep. Earl Hilliard, a sitting member of the Congressional Black Caucus, began his uneasy relationship with Alabama's traditional black power brokers, including the Alabama Democratic Caucus (ADC), which serves as the state's black caucus.

"Artur Davis represents the Obama generation. They are not connected to the civil rights movement, but they profited from the civil rights movement," said Natalie Davis, a professor of political science at Birmingham-Southern College. "The struggle is not the priority."

Davis' decision to endorse Obama for president over the black establishment's choice of Hillary Clinton exacerbated the existing rift; a recent move to suggest nominees for federal judgeships directly to the Obama administration without consulting the state party seems to have cemented it. "I've heard party members say they don't appreciate being ignored," said one Alabama Democrat.

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Although Davis lost his race against Hilliard in 2000, he won a rematch in 2002. His four terms in Congress have been defined by his role as a member of the moderate Blue Dog coalition. Although he was appointed to the powerful Ways and Means Committee in 2007, Davis says it's not enough to keep him in Congress. "My goal was never to be a long-term member of Congress," he said in an interview this week.

An occasional defector from the Democratic leadership's bills, he recently voted against the energy legislation that passed the House.

That vote won him unexpected praise recently at the Kiwanis Club in Mountain Brook, a wealthy, mostly white neighborhood in Birmingham where Davis was the civic club's featured luncheon speaker. But instead of delivering a generic stump speech, he told a story about patriotism and a man's dying words declaring that he was an American.

"What if we could say, 'I'm from Alabama,' and it meant something, too?" Davis asked the all-white group. He also said that ending corruption would be his first order of business in Montgomery, and that he would work to put Alabama schools on equal footing. "We cannot sit on the sidelines because it doesn't affect us inside our gates," he said.

Davis said later that he chose to make his campaign not about himself, but about changing Alabama, because "I believe voters want someone who will offer something other than another candidacy and another defense of the status quo. They're ready to be challenged and ready to be led."

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The first test of that theory will come on June 1, 2010, in the state's Democratic primary. Davis' only announced opponent is Ron Sparks, the state's commissioner of Agriculture and Industries. But rumors have swirled for months that members of the black establishment, as well as the Alabama Education Association, have been working to recruit a candidate to run against Davis, arguing that because he is black and cannot be elected statewide he would be a drag on the Democratic ticket in November.

The AEA is a powerful political force in the state and is closely aligned with the state's black caucus. It doles out PAC money, endorsements and often the support of Alabama's 100,000 teachers. "The most powerful funding source in the state is trying to find an alternative to Artur Davis," said Philip Bryan, communications director for the state Republican Party, who made no secret that the GOP is happy to see the split among Democrats. "What's going to happen between those two factions? They've got a problem that's going to tear their party apart."

That's a charge that Paul Hubbert, the president of the AEA, flatly denies. "I want to set the record straight. No one at the AEA has encouraged or discouraged anyone to get into the race. I don't know where this came from." Hubbert said potential candidates call him for advice, but they make their own decisions. Two of those candidates, Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb and Circuit Judge Charles Price, recently announced they will not run against Davis for governor.

Hubbert has not spoken with Davis about the race, but said the Davis campaign called him this week and that he expects to talk with the congressman in the near future.

As to whether Hubbert believes Davis would, in fact, be a drag on the ticket, he cited three recent Alabama elections, including Obama's 22-point trouncing here in the 2008 general election, as evidence that Davis would struggle in the general election. "I think a lot of people wonder if the congressman can win the state," he said. "That, I think, is causing a great amount of concern on the part of some Democrats."

Daryl Perkins, the senior political director for the Davis campaign, said the split between his candidate and members of the Democratic establishment is "very real," but that it will not be fatal for the campaign. "It's unusual when somebody goes out and seeks other candidates, when our polling, their polling and everybody's polling shows that we're competitive."

Jim Spearman, executive director of the Alabama Democratic Party, acknowledged that he has heard concerns among Democratic leadership that Davis could hurt the statewide ticket, "but I'm not sure that's accurate," he said, adding, "Alabama politics is open warfare at times."

As for Davis himself, he says the suggestion that he cannot win a general election is a "smoke screen" put up by entrenched interests who know they will loose their hold on power in Montgomery if he wins. "There are certain people who recognize that I will bring change and that I will change the status quo," he said. "What they've come up with is, 'He must be unelectable.' "

Most in the state believe Davis would easily win the Democratic primary as the field stands today. He is the only African-American in a race in which more than half of expected voters are black and who historically vote for black candidates. An Anzalone-Liszt poll commissioned by the Davis campaign showed Davis leading Ron Sparks in May by 30 points.

But threading the needle for a general election in Alabama will be much more difficult.

Natalie Davis said that for Artur Davis to win, he would have to more than double Obama's share of Alabama's white vote and win at least 38 percent of it.

Davis' campaign acknowledged the historic challenge he would face, but his political adviser Perkins said, "People will be open to a person they connect to. They were ready for Barack Obama to be president. Is the state of Alabama ready for a liberal black governor? Probably not. Are they ready for Artur Davis? I believe so."

Philip Bryan, communications director for the Alabama GOP, says that being a Democrat in Alabama could hurt Davis more than any racial component. "Why do we have six people running for governor and they only have two? The numbers show the Republican will be the next governor," he said. In addition to the sitting governor, who is a Republican, the state's two U.S. senators, Richard Shelby and Jeff Sessions, are conservative Republicans as well.

Hope for the Davis campaign came in that same Anzalone-Liszt poll in May, which showed Davis holding a five-point lead over the man considered to be the Republicans' strongest candidate, Bradley Byrne.

After Byrne later officially announced his candidacy, an independent poll from Public Policy Polling showed Davis trailing Byrne by five points but leading the other five Republican candidates.

No matter what the polls say now, Davis' fate could rest on the success or failure of his friend, President Obama: "If Obama is viewed as having failed by November of 2010, I would say Davis would experience some of that fallout." Natalie Davis said.

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When he was 10 years old, Davis' mother took him to visit historic sights in Montgomery, including the museum at the First White House of the Confederacy.

Earlier his month, Eva Newman, a docent at the museum, spoke about politics and her worries about the size of the national debt and the lack of faith in government. Newman, who liked Mike Huckabee in 2008, said she was surprised the country was ready to elect Barack Obama president last year.

When asked if Alabama is ready to elect Artur Davis as governor, she paused in the hallway of Jefferson Davis's historic home and said, "Change is coming. . . . If he works hard and does the right things, why not?"


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