Republicans Have Reasons for Hope in 2010

Unless you're a veteran from a rock-solid liberal district, it's a bit scary these days to be a Democrat in Congress. There's political risk in delivering the sweeping changes President Obama promised on health and energy policy, but there's also political risk in failing to deliver them.

On the one hand, Democrats control the White House and Congress and don't want to be judged incompetent at governing. On the other, the problems they are trying to address are vast and complicated. The fixes are hard to explain, the longterm impact is hard to predict, and the upshot is wary voters.

Fold in high unemployment, a soaring deficit, warning signs in polls and historical trends in midterm elections, and it's clear that Republicans have reason for hope in 2010.

The corollary is that Democrats have reason to be nervous, which may be why they are amassing money at a fast clip. In June, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee raised $7.1 million versus $3.1 million for the National Republican Congressional Committee. The NRCC had announced receipts of $7.2 million from a VIP-studded fundraising dinner last month, but much of the money was in pledges yet to be collected.

Since World War II, the party in the White House has lost an average of 16 House seats in midterm elections held two years into a new presidency. The GOP would need 40 to overtake the Democrats, who now have a 256-178 majority. Getting there is improbable, but not impossible. In 1994, starting from a similar deficit, Republicans picked up 54 seats.

Republicans don't dismiss the prospect of re-taking the House, but they are cautious about it. Forty seats is "a goal, not a prediction," says NRCC spokesman Paul Lindsay.

One reason Democrats are somewhat vulnerable is that they have done so well in recent years – picking up 31 seats in 2006 and another 20 in 2008. Inevitably, many are in conservative districts that could swing back to the GOP. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee counts 41 House members as vulnerable, most of them freshmen and sophomores.

Republicans hold some advantage when it comes to defense. They have 35 members in districts carried by Obama; Democrats are dealing with 49 seats in districts carried by GOP presidential nominee John McCain.

"Those are voters who thought the Republican conservative was the right person to lead the country and wanted his ideas . . . to rule the day," EMILY's List president Ellen Malcolm, whose group raises money for Democratic women, said in an interview. All it would take for Democrats to lose their majority next year, she said, is for some Democratic voters to stay home or some independents to think "there's still too much bickering and I'm worried about all of this spending and I'm either not going to vote or I'm going to vote for the Republican."

The fundamentals at this point can be read either way. Democrats are disadvantaged in that unemployment is heading toward double digits and confidence is falling in Obama's approaches to the economy, health care, energy and federal spending. Republicans, however, must contend with Obama's personal approval rating, which is still high by historical standards, and their own unpopularity (congressional Republicans trail Obama by about 20 percentage points on approval ratings).

The other GOP problem is that November 2010 is so far away. The economy could be in genuine recovery by then, and that would shrink deficit projections. Also, Obama has the time and the majorities to make headway on any issue that threatens those majorities, such as exploding deficits in years to come.

Democrats held onto a seat this year in a special election in upstate New York and have a shot at picking up one when New York Republican John McHugh, whose huge Adirondacks district borders Canada, is confirmed as Obama's secretary of the Army. Democrats also are going after pickups in about 10 districts, including suburban Chicago, where Mark Kirk just announced for Senate; suburban Philadelphia, where Jim Gerlach is running for governor; Delaware, where Mike Castle is expected to retire or run for the Senate; and New Orleans, where Republican Joseph Cao won the heavily Democratic district against an incumbent, William Jefferson, charged with political corruption.

The GOP sees opportunities in places like southern Louisiana, where Democrat Charlie Melancon may run for the Senate. Republicans also are looking at rematches – including two in Ohio and a third in Maryland – in races narrowly won by Democrats in 2008. They are banking on a less charged political environment next year with lower Democratic turnout – and a continuation of current trends that show independents increasingly breaking away from Obama.

There are still more than 15 months until the midterms, but the pace and rhetoric are blistering. Both sides are using automated phone calls, press releases, radio and TV ads against members in targeted districts. The DCCC is keeping a running tally of projects touted by Republican House members who opposed and continue to attack the economic stimulus package that is paying for them. The NRCC is hammering vulnerable Democrats over the "job-killing" high-tax agenda of Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi – that is, the health reform and climate change bills moving through Congress.

Democrats cannot flinch at this point – they will be judged utter failures if they don't get one or both bills passed. Yet if they succeed, November 2010 will be too early for voters to figure out whether the changes are good for them or good for the country. A lot is hanging on the vagaries of the economy and public trust in Obama.

It's not as if Republicans are brimming with creative, detailed proposals to cover the uninsured, control health costs or keep the planet from melting. But they won't need them if Democrats from Obama on down don't do a better job of explaining what they're doing and why, and how voters can expect their own lives to change, or not, as a result.