This we know: Sonia Sotomayor will be the next associate justice of the Supreme Court. She will be the court's first Hispanic and its third woman. Sixty-one senators have announced they'll support the judge when the Senate votes to confirm her at 3:00 today. So she's in. (UPDATE: Sonia Sotomayor has now been confirmed in a 68-31 vote)
But what don't we know about Sotomayor and the legacy of her confirmation battle? From how she'll rule on cases before the high court to the possible political fallout of her appointment, the Sotomayor episode now opens the door to several cosmic questions. Here are five that we cannot yet answer:
1. How will Justice Sotomayor rule from the bench? Senators of both parties criticized the Sotomayor hearings as "little more than theater" and called for changes to the process that allows judicial nominees to duck questions on how they'll rule in cases. Beginning with Ruth Bader Ginsburg and continuing with John Roberts and Samuel Alito, recent Supreme Court nominees have established a pattern of declining to answer questions on the very nature of how they would perform their jobs in the future. Sotomayor followed their lead.
Americans met two Sonia Sotomayors in the six weeks they got to know her -- a proud, passionate, hard-working advocate, and a dispassionate, almost emotionless, appellate judge who hewed faithfully to established case law. Which Sotomayor will be on the bench where precedent is both established and followed?
2. Does the Republican Party care about the Hispanic vote? Of the 30 Republicans who have announced they will oppose Sotomayor, four come from states with large Latino populations. Both Texas senators, Kay Bailey Hutchison and John Cornyn, have announced that they'll vote against her, as have both Arizona senators -- John McCain and Jon Kyl. Texas and Arizona are 36 percent and 30 percent Latino, respectively.
Also voting no will be senators from the states with the fastest growing Latino populations, including Nevada's John Ensign, where the Latino population grew 58 percent between 2000 and 2007; Saxby Chambliss from Georgia (49 percent); Jim DeMint from South Carolina (63 percent); Richard Burr from North Carolina (45 percent); and Bob Corker from Tennessee (56 percent).
All these senators have articulated genuine philosophical differences with Sotomayor. But while doing so during her confirmation hearings, they tended to train their fire on questions concerning Sotomayor's impartiality as a Latina. They would argue that this was necessitated by Sotomayor's now-infamous "wise Latina" line. Perhaps. But does a more basic perception now linger over the GOP? As Florida Gov. Jeb Bush warned Republicans the day after the 2008 elections: "We can't be anti-Hispanic, anti-young person, anti many things and be surprised when we don't win elections."
3. Has the National Rifle Association lost its juice? After years of increasing influence among Republicans and Democrats, the NRA's decision to "score" senators' votes on Sotomayor has been met with a collective "who cares?" Several sure-fire NRA supporters from hunting states have shrugged off the ding they'll get on their Second Amendment records. Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) and Kirstin Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) all have sterling ratings from the NRA and will support the nominee.
When the AP asked conservative Democrat Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska how the NRA score will affect him, he said with a smile, "I'd probably have a good rating regardless."
4. Are respectful hearings the new, new thing? Everyone from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has praised the hearings for their respectful tone and level of civility, even while delving into loaded questions of racism and temperament. Before the proceedings concluded, Sessions promised not to filibuster her nomination. And even Republicans who criticized Sotomayor's record took pains to laud the judge for her personal achievements.
So are the gloves staying on in the future? Maybe, maybe not. The Sotomayor choice was designed to change the face of the Supreme Court, but not the court's ideological makeup. Even though she is more left-of-center than conservative Republicans can support, she is filling the seat of Justice David Souter, one of the more liberal justices on the court. In short, the addition of Sotomayor will make little difference in the court's 5-to-4 balance of power.
But what if the next justice to retire is Anthony Kennedy, the clear swing vote on the court? What if the White House decides to push for a more clearly liberal candidate the next time around? Several factors kept the Sotomayor hearings on the high road. Those factors may not be built into the next pick, although a return to civility has at least been tried.
5. Is this is a long-term victory for President Obama?
For all of George W. Bush's shortcomings as president, his appointments of John Roberts and Samuel Alito to the court represent his proudest legacies to conservatives. Will Sotomayor bring victory for Obama among liberals? That's unclear.
Sotomayor ruled against a challenge to the Mexico City policy, which banned recipients of U.S. aid from advocating or performing abortions, and she also said the right to bear arms is an individual right, a statement gun-control advocates worry expands the Second Amendment too far. She's been true to the law, but always not true to politics. Her performance on the court in the future will determine whether this is a legacy victory for Obama or just a political win on a hot August day.

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