Obama vs. Palin: A Mock 2012 Matchup

Paired for reelection against Sarah Palin in a new poll done by Marist University, President Obama swamps the former Alaska governor, 56 to 33 percent. The rest of the electorate in the survey pronounced themselves to be undecided, but even if Palin got most of that remaining 11 percent, such a result would mean a landslide reelection victory for the incumbent president in 2012.


The Marist Poll is a reputable outfit, but the question arises: What do such surveys mean 3½ years before an election? Well, the short answer is nothing.

For starters, it's hardly a sure thing that John McCain's 2008 running mate will be the Republican presidential nominee next time around. In addition, Obama's current standing in public opinion (down to 51 percent in a Pew poll out today) is not a static number. In the summer of 1982, for example, Ronald Reagan's job approval rating was only 41 percent -- eight points lower than his disapproval rating. Guess what? Reagan won reelection in 1984 with 59 percent of the vote, carrying 49 states. Democratic nominee Walter Mondale managed to carry only his home state of Minnesota and the District of Columbia.

Yet, the Marist Poll does reveal some information. For starters, Barack Obama retains the loyalty of 92 percent of Democrats -- at least in a mythical matchup against Sarah Palin -- while only 73 percent of Republicans say they'd stick with Palin against Obama. In addition, although Obama's support among independents has declined this summer, he beats Palin by 15 points among these all-important "swing" voters. These numbers underscore a couple of realities:

First, the Republican Party doesn't have a single, agreed-upon leader. Nor should the opposition party have coalesced around a standard bearer yet. That's what the next three years are for. Second, after all the hits she has taken in the media over the past year, coupled with her resignation as governor with 18 months left in her only term in the Juneau statehouse, Palin has her work cut out for her -- if her goal is the presidency.

Finally, this poll shows -- even as Obama's own job approval ratings decline -- that politicians' reputations don't exist in a vacuum. Pollsters may pose their time-honored question: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama (or George W. Bush, or Bill Clinton, or Ronald Reagan) is doing as president? But, even as they answer that question to the best of their ability based on current conditions, American voters always have another question in the backs of their minds as well: "Compared to whom?"