White House Panel: 90,000 Could Die in U.S. From Swine Flu

Swine flu could hospitalize 1.8 million Americans and kill up to 90,000 this fall, according to a new report from a presidential panel that has studied the virus, also known as H1N1. The 68-page report outlines a "plausible scenario" in which 60 million to 120 million people contract the virus, and as many as 300,000 require intensive care. By contrast, about 200,000 Americans are hospitalized with standard strains of influenza each year, leading to 36,000 deaths. Hospitals would be overwhelmed by a major outbreak, and one expert says the looming crisis will stress every aspect of the health care system.

Worry about the spread of H1N1 has been mounting as schools reopen for the fall term. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control estimate that nearly 2 million Americans have already been infected with swine flu, though only 522 have died. Most of the victims in a pandemic would be children and young adults. The panel's report calls for intensified tracking efforts, along with precautionary measures that could limit exposure, such as ensuring that infected people get refunds to sporting events.

Public health officials are already on the case, but their efforts are behind schedule. The Washington Post reported last weekend that the government plans a sweeping vaccination campaign this fall to immunize at least half of the country's population. It would be the most ambitious program of its kind in human history, but the scientists involved face a number of obstacles: They are still testing the vaccine for safety, and have not yet determined the correct dosage. Only a third of the vaccine necessary is expected to arrive by the time the campaign begins in mid-October.

National Health Service officials in the U.K. are preparing for outbreaks on a similar scale, predicting in July that swine flu would infect a third of Britain's population and kill as many as 65,000. British scientists have also been racing to test vaccines. Some doctors have warned that a vaccine could cause Guillain-Barre syndrome, a paralyzing disorder linked to a 1976 effort to vaccinate against swine flu in the U.S.