GOP Strategist: Five to Eight Republican Votes Possible on Senate Health Bill

Republican strategist Bill McInturff had mixed tidings Thursday for President Obama and his drive for health reform. People are so nervous about the idea of losing some of their own care that Obama may have to "rebrand" the effort, McInturff said. But he also predicted that if Obama ultimately signs a bill, the president will get credit for surviving the process.

McInturff suggested that five to eight Republican senators could be lured to vote for the right kind of health bill -- one that doesn't include "a very large public option" run by the government but might include "some experimental (public) program in Vermont" or some type of health insurance co-operative. "There are a lot of different ways" to get to more than 60 votes, he said.

McInturff has polled on health issues for years for candidates, media organizations, the GOP and health care players, including hospitals and insurers. He released new results this week that show public opinion on Obama's proposal is pretty much where it was just before President Clinton's health care plans turned to dust in 1994. Very roughly, for then and now, about one-quarter favor and one-third oppose, with the rest having no opinion.

An adviser to John McCain's 2008 and 2000 presidential campaigns, McInturff had worked to kill the Clinton plan. On Wednesday, speaking at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast, he said he's not sorry about that, but he did not mean to stop health reform for 15 years. "The stunning thing about 1994 was that nothing got done at all," McInturff said. "I didn't think the Democratic caucus would walk away."

The Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races this fall are "incredibly important" to the fate of Obama's plans, McInturff said. If Republicans win both, he said, it would be "very chilling" to moderate Democrats from swing House districts and make them less willing to risk support for Obama's big initiatives on health and energy.

McInturff predicted that after the 2010 midterm elections, Obama and congressional Democrats will make a concerted effort to try to tame deficit spending that could drive up the national debt to an estimated $9 trillion in 2019. He said Republicans should "jump on it" and help, because "that's what we ought to be for." He said they should support it even if it happens during 2010 -- in time for Democrats to reap some rewards in the midterms.