House Democrats Could See Double-Digit Seat Losses, Experts Say

A number of political analysts who focus on House races predict moderate to heavy Democratic losses in 2010, Politico reports. Some of the most prominent and respected political forecasters "envision an election in which Democrats suffer double-digit losses in the House -- not enough to provide the 40 seats necessary to return the GOP to power but enough to put them within striking distance."

The news comes scarcely a week after GOP pollsters said they see parallels to 1994, when the Democrats lost the House in a landslide. "It's déjà vu all over again," Bill McInturff told reporters last week. Political analyst Charlie Cook used the same term in an update about the 2010 outlook: "Many veteran congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu." Celebrated statistician Nate Silver, of FiveThirtyEight.com, told attendees of the progressive Netroots Nation conference that he predicts Republicans will win 20 to 50 seats, and have between a 25 and 33 percent chance of taking back the House.

The party in power almost always loses seats in the midterm elections -- sometimes as many as 10 to 12. But a difficult summer for Democrats, who have faced declining poll numbers as they have tried to sell the president's health care plan to a skeptical electorate, has dimmed their prospects even further. Silver says the environment for Democrats will be much tougher than during the 2006 or 2008 elections, when the nation had a deeply unpopular Republican president. African-Americans and party volunteers who turned out to help elect Barack Obama will likely be less enthused about preserving the party's majority.

David Wasserman, an analyst at the Cook Political Report, expressed some skepticism that another 1994 is in the works. Republican gains 15 years ago were boosted by a large number of veteran Democrats who retired. Only seven Democrats have opted not to run next year. "I don't think that Democrats' chances of losing the House are anywhere near one-in-four right now," Wasserman told Politico.

Follow David Sessions on Twitter.