Testing the Democrats (and the Obama Factor) in North Carolina

In the 2008 election, Barack Obama at the top of the ticket had the power to turn red states blue. In 2010, it may be a different story, particularly in those borderline states more accurately described as purple.

With polls showing uncertainty about health-care reform and the war in Afghanistan, increasingly confident Republicans and anxious Democrats are watching fluctuating polls in governors' races in New Jersey and Virginia.

Beltway-based experts looking southward don't want to be taken by surprise again. Though North Carolina has never been as predictable as its neighbor to the South, the last time the state delivered its presidential electoral votes to a Democrat, a Southerner topped the ticket -- not Bill Clinton, but Jimmy Carter in 1976. The Obama campaign never gave up on the state, though. His many appearances -- including one the night before the Nov. 4, 2008, election -- tipped the state his way by just 14,000 votes, a margin initially too close to call.

Big cities had leaned Democratic before, but in 2008, other parts of the state gave Obama just enough votes. When mills and manufacturers close and jobs disappear or move overseas, abortion and William Ayers don't work.

Add to that changing demographics, including an increasing Hispanic population, and a surge in Democratic voter registration, and Obama's coattails helped Democrat Bev Perdue become the state's first woman governor.

Next year's unsettled Senate contest is not especially exciting so far. Republican Sen. Richard Burr already has opponents lining up, but none of the declared hopefuls has the name recognition Democrats would prefer. According to FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver, Burr's chances have improved, but the race will depend on the national mood at election time; Burr himself is not that known or popular, according to numbers from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling. Of course, Republican Elizabeth Dole didn't fare so well in 2008, losing her Senate seat. But she was thought to be out of touch, Democrat Kay Hagan ran a smart campaign against Dole's poor one (remember the "godless" attack ads?) and the timing was terrible for any Republican.

Outgoing Republican Mayor Pat McCrory – with seven terms and 14 years behind him – has made the most of it and is still in the spotlight: His recent column in The Wall Street Journal took his criticism of how federal economic stimulus money is being spent to a national audience. He's working through his last day, a point he emphasized when I spoke with him on a stimulus reporting project for ProPublica. Along with other mayors in the Southeast, he is promoting the idea of a cooperative "mega-region." And it's hard to believe that after coming so close to the governor's office in 2008, he has given up on the possibility of running again.

Sue Myrick, a former two-term Republican mayor, is now in her eighth term as a congresswoman representing the safely conservative 9th district of North Carolina.

Perhaps the most nationally recognized former Charlotte mayor has his name on the Harvey B. Gantt Center for African-American Arts + Culture, set to open in Charlotte this fall. Mention Gantt and many think of his two closely fought battles with the late Sen. Jesse Helms and Helms' infamous 1990 "white hands" ad that stoked racial fears over affirmative action and proved the difference in Helms' win.

Gantt, who integrated Clemson University under court order in 1963 and co-founded Gantt Huberman Architects, served two terms as mayor after his 1983 election. The first (and so far only) African American mayor of Charlotte is a respected political voice as the city looks to solve problems of education, transportation and economic investment, and manage growth.

This fall's election in Charlotte has everything: an entrenched incumbent stepping down, City Council colleagues as the probable opponents, the backdrop of a boom city facing economic uncertainty, and something that will not quite fade away because, as a local observer said, "In the South, race is always an issue." The city will have the chance to elect its first African American mayor since Gantt.

Gantt reflected on that in an interview last year, in which he predicted a possible run by the man who could be the second black mayor, Anthony Foxx. Foxx confirmed his interest then, and commented on the history.

"Harvey won because he was Harvey," Foxx told me. "He was African American and brought a perspective to the role of mayor that had not been there before. I think it will happen not because the person is black but because people felt that person has the qualities to lead."

Early voting has started for the Sept. 15 primary. Democrat Foxx is running unopposed; with all due respect to his primary competition, Republican John Lassiter may as well be. The other Republicans are Jack Stratton and Martin Davis, who wants to privatize the airport and became known in the 1990s for reading explicit passages from library books at televised government meetings as a protest.

Public Policy Polling recently showed a race between Foxx and Lassiter as being a dead heat, with Lassiter ahead, 44 to 43 percent, and both men with high favorability numbers.

Both candidates have raised record amounts of money for a Charlotte mayoral race, and must be aware of the national spotlight. But they have been careful to place the campaign focus on local challenges, such as keeping police officers on the streets and encouraging new businesses.

Both are at-large City Council members, Foxx since 2005 and Lassiter since 2003. They have law degrees -- Foxx from New York University and Lassiter from Wake Forest.

Foxx, 38, who was the first African American student body president at Davidson, was raised by his mother and grandparents. He remembers putting together Gantt yard signs with his politically active grandfather, and has the louder rallies. Last weekend at one of them, former North Carolina Gov. James Hunt touted Foxx's support of the schools and said he would "have great influence in the legislature and great influence in Washington, D.C."

"He's his own person," said Joe Sutterlin, 67, whose son and daughter attended high school with Foxx at West Charlotte, the one-time jewel of Charlotte school desegregation that is trying to regain its past glory. "We need to recapture that spirit of working together for the good of all."

Lassiter, 54, has been reaching out to community groups across the city. "You have to campaign the way you're going to govern, not just where it's comfortable," he said at an event for black professionals this summer.

At a meet-and-greet at his headquarters last week, David Maxwell, an unemployed construction worker, said he believed Lassiter has the "eloquence, education and background" to get things done for the city.

In the 2008 governor's race, McCrory, a popular figure, didn't carry the city, a good sign for the Democrats. But Pat Cannon, a former Democratic City Councilman again running for an at-large seat this year, says there's a chance voters will want to balance out recent Democratic victories.

Lynn Wheeler is not choosing sides. The former mayor pro tem and Republican City Council member is a political junkie with a forum on local radio. "It's going to be a very close race that's going to be determined by turnout," she said.

She doesn't see much philosophical difference between the two. If the Democrats can get Foxx through this race, "he can be groomed for higher office," she said. "Anthony has the same cross-over appeal as Harvey did."

"If experience counts, Lassiter will win," she said, citing his time on the city council, school board and planning commission.

When she was considering a city hall run, she said, her polls indicated "vision" was most important to voters.

But whose vision will Charlotte voters choose? It's not yet clear one year later how much Obama's election success and policy decisions since then will find their way into a local race with national implications.