Contributing Editor
North Carolina's first-term Republican
Sen. Richard Burr, who has received lukewarm voter approval ratings in some surveys, is leading in 2010 match-ups against a field of Democratic challengers -- although his support is under 50 percent, a potentially troubling sign in a state where no Senate incumbent has been re-elected since 1968.
Burr leads the strongest Democratic contender, Secretary of State
Elaine Marshall, 48 percent to 38 percent, with 3 percent preferring another candidate and 11 percent undecided, according to a
Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 15. The margin of error is 4.5 points.
Marshall is the first woman to win a statewide executive office, although she lost a bid for the Democratic nomination for the Senate in 2002. Other prominent Democrats such as Attorney General Roy Cooper, former Gov. Mike Easely and Rep. Brad Miller passed on challenging Burr.
Burr leads Durham attorney
Kenneth Lewis, another certain candidate, 48-32, with 7 percent preferring someone else and 14 percent undecided. Burr leads Democratic
Rep. Bob Etheridge, who has not declared, 48-34, with 3 percent preferring another candidate and 15 percent undecided.
Burr enjoys stronger support among his own party than do any of the Democrats, and he leads all the Democrats among unaffiliated voters by 28 points or more.
Burr's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 58 percent to 26 percent in the Rasmussen poll, in sharp contrast to surveys by
Public Policy Polling, whose last survey, conducted Sept. 2-8, had 38 percent approving of his performance, 32 percent disapproving and 29 percent undecided. In that poll, when matched against a generic Democrat, Burr led 45 percent to 38 percent with 18 percent undecided.
The key favorability numbers for the three Democrats are among voters not sure they know enough about them to have an opinion. While only 15 percent are not sure about Burr, 28 percent answer "not sure" on Marshall and Etheridge, while 34 percent are unsure about Lewis – which means any of them would have work to do in building up name recognition.