Democrats Poised to Take Back Arizona Governor's Seat

The Arizona governor's seat switched parties when President Obama tapped the state's Democratic chief executive, Janet Napolitano, to head the Homeland Security Department. But, if the 2010 election were held today, Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard would beat the Republican who took Napolitano's place, Jan Brewer, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 18-21.

Brewer had been secretary of state and that put her in line to become governor when Napolitano left.

Goddard leads Brewer in the poll 46 percent to 36 percent with 17 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 percentage points.

Brewer's standing has suffered from intense budget battles that put her at war with her own party after she called for a sales tax hike to preserve essential state services. At one point, Republican lawmakers refused to send her a budget that she had indicated she would veto, and now the issue of the tax increase will be decided by voters in November.

Arizona voters disapprove of her job performance by a 43 percent to 26 percent margin with 31 percent undecided. Republicans disapprove of her performance by 37 percent to 28 percent, Democrats disapprove by 48 percent to 24 percent and independents disapprove by 46 percent to 26 percent.

"This is the first poll in months where we've found a Democratic challenger leading a Republican incumbent anywhere across the country," said PPP's Dean Debnam. "Jan Brewer's one of the least popular governors anywhere and that's put Terry Goddard in a strong position."