McDonnell's Lead Over Deeds Shrinks in Virginia

Republican Bob McDonnell's lead over Democratic opponent Creigh Deeds in the Virginia governor's race is down to 48 percent to 43 percent with 8 percent undecided. McDonnell had a seven point advantage a month ago and 14 points in July, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 25-28. The margin of error is 4.1 percentage points.

McDonnell has held on to his lead because he is ahead 53 percent to 37 percent among independents (who make up 34 percent of the sample) and has more support among fellow Republicans than Deeds does among Democrats. Ninety-six percent of Republicans back McDonnell compared to 82 percent of Democrats behind Deeds. Most of the remaining undecided voters are Democrats.

The negativity of the campaign appears to have hurt both men. McDonnell's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is now 47 percent to 42 percent compared to 53 percent to 31 percent a month ago. Deeds is viewed favorably by 43 percent and unfavorably by 42 percent, compared to 47 percent to 35 percent a month ago.

The issue of McDonnell's 1989 graduate thesis criticizing homosexuals and working mothers as detrimental to families doesn't make a difference to 59 percent of those surveyed in terms of how they will vote. Thirty-four percent said it makes it less likely they will vote for McDonnell and 7 percent say more likely.