Specter and Toomey in Dead-Heat in Pa. Senate Race
Bruce Drake
Contributing Editor
Posted:
10/1/09
Sen. Arlen Specter, the newly-minted Democrat, has a big lead over his challenger for the party's nomination, Rep. Joe Sestak, but he is locked in a statistical dead-heat with Republican opponent Pat Toomey, a former congressman who had also headed the conservative Club for Growth, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Sept. 22-28.Toomey's conservative challenge to Specter while Specter was still a Republican was one of the factors that pushed the five-term incumbent over the party line, along with unhappiness among GOP voters about his support for President Obama's economic stimulus bill. (Specter was one of only three Republicans to vote for it.)
In the Quinnipiac poll, Toomey edges Specter, 43 percent to 42 percent with 13 percent undecided, compared to July when Specter led, 45 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error is 3 points. Voters say by 52 percent to 37 percent that Specter does not deserve to be re-elected.
"Toomey and Specter are neck and neck in what could be a 13-month horse race," said Quinnipiac's Peter Brown. "The challenger's ability to close the 53-33 percent gap in Quinnipiac University's May 4 poll is evidence that the longtime senator's decisions to switch parties to avoid a potential loss to Toomey in a GOP primary may not be the magic bullet for re-election that he had hoped it would be."
"Specter has more than enough time to reverse his fortunes, but being tied with the relatively unknown Toomey is evidence that this election has become a referendum on Specter," Brown said.
In a primary matchup, Specter leads Sestak, 44 percent to 25 percent with 28 percent undecided. But Sestak stacks up almost the same as Specter against Toomey, trailing Toomey by 38 percent to 35 percent with 25 percent undecided.
Specter is viewed unfavorably by 46 percent of voters and favorably by 42 percent. Forty-eight percent disapprove the job he is doing as senator, compared to 44 percent who approve.
Toomey is viewed favorably by 34 percent to 12 percent, but despite his strong showing against Specter, 53 percent haven't heard enough about him to express a view. Sestak's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are pretty meaningless, since 70 percent of respondents don't know enough about him to have an opinion.