Why Did You Change Your Mind About Abortion?

Why did you change your mind about abortion? That's right, I'm talking to you. Or to some of you, at least.

Last week, David Gibson gave the Politics Daily overview to new polling results released by the Pew Forum about abortion. Some of the results were unsurprising: Positions are hardening on both sides since last year's elections, and the Democrats' new control of the White House and Congress seemed to be energizing the most fervent of those opposed to abortion.

No shocker there: A highly visible new opponent generally juices up the strongest partisans on the other side. But there was also this: The poll showed significant changes since last year in support for legalized abortion, belief that abortion should be made more difficult, and belief that the number of abortions should drop.

Here are a few things that haven't changed since last year: Any of the facts concerning abortion. Not the technology used to perform it. Not the process by which a woman gains access. Not any of the laws. Not any of the religious sacred texts or their interpretations that some people say speak to the issue. Not any of the arguments advanced by either side.

Heck, the signs and slogans I've seen in the past year from both sides are identical to what I saw 20 years ago, down to the images and texts. Here's something else that hasn't changed: The percentage of people who told pollsters that they think that abortion is morally wrong -- locked at 52 percent since 2006.

So none of the facts about abortion have changed in the past year. Yet the percentage of people who told Pew that abortion should be illegal/legal in all or most cases shifted from 41-54 to 45-47. The swing in some subgroups was even more dramatic: More than 11 points among white Protestants who say they attend church less than weekly. About 10 points among Catholics who say they hit a weekly Mass. About the same shift among self-styled moderate and liberal Republicans.

My question has nothing to do with the direction of the change, mind you. What I'm wondering is pretty simple: Since nothing has changed about the abortion debate in the past year except the political milieu, why are some people shifting on the essentials?

Surely, whether or not you think abortion should be illegal does not depend on who sits in the Oval Office during any particular year. Or who won the most recent election. And nobody can plausibly claim that those opposed to abortion have suddenly become more effective in getting their positions known in the past year. Or the other side less so. I asked Pew Senior Researcher Greg Smith about this. He offered a guess that the numbers shifted because of the 2008 election results:

"If people's expectations about polices that are likely to be enacted change as a result in a change of administration and of control of Congress, maybe it is possible that people's opinions on abortion could change in response to their expectations. "

So I decide abortion should be illegal because I fear that the folks in charge really, really want it to remain legal? Seriously? That's a little hard for me to swallow, particularly when Pew reports that the percentage of people who say abortion is a critical issue has actually declined. On both sides of the argument. And when a substantial percentage of those polled -- about 40 percent of those on both sides of the debate -- didn't even know where President Obama stands.

I know that Emerson famously said that a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds. But still. So I asked Smith: Why didn't you just ask people why they changed their minds? Guess what? They did. But so few people were willing to own up to shifting their positions that it was impossible to do any serious analysis. Smith has a charitable explanation for that: "It's hard for people to perceive and report changes in their own thinking."

Me, I'm less willing to cut any slack. I think people are generally unwilling these days to admit that they might have made a mistake, even to an anonymous pollster. While my attention was grabbed by this recent report, there is nothing new about significant swings in similar polls over the years. In 1995, a couple of polls had the illegal/legal split right around 40-60. And I suggest that nothing significant has changed about the abortion debate since then, either.

So that leaves us with a question that you might be able to answer. Have you changed your mind recently about the legality, ease of access or number of abortions? Are you willing to tell the world what changed your mind? This is not an invitation to repeat the entire debate about abortion. Nor to diss those who take a position different than your own. This is a challenge for you to explain why you, and nobody but you, recently changed your mind.

There was a day when you took one position and a day when you took a different position. What happened in between to push you over the edge -- in either direction? You can answer in the comments here. Or you can send your reasons directly to me and I can post them. I've set up a special e-mail address to field those responses: whyichanged@aol.com.

I realize there will be nothing statistically scientific about any of the results. But even social scientists know there's a value in narratives. Smith assured me that he'd love to see whatever we come up with. Your turn.