Reading the Tea Leaves in the N.J. Governor's Race

2 years ago

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Three polls since Sept. 30 have shown Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine "closing the gap" on Republican challenger Chris Christie, but political analyst Stuart Rothenberg doesn't much like that phrase, even though the margin between the candidates is in fact smaller now.

"Describing Corzine as closing the gap or pulling closer conveys the impression that Corzine is gathering support and increasing his standing in the contest," Rothenberg writes. "He is not. He hasn't moved in the Quinnipiac University poll (or in other polls, for that matter) since the beginning of the year."

He says Corzine is essentially no better off than he was a month ago, "stuck between 38 percent and 42 percent" in the polls and that the apparent narrowing of the contest is not due to Corzine picking up support but because Christie has slipped from the 46 percent-to-47 percent range to 43 percent (this is from the Quinnipiac survey).

Rothenberg says the key indicators of whether the dynamics of the race are changing would be if Corzine's numbers started to move upward or Christie supporters started moving towards independent Chris Daggett.

The polls:

Daily Kos/Research 2000

Monmouth University

Quinnipiac University

Filed Under: Polls, Governors, Poll Watch

Tagged: chris christie, ChrisChristie, Jon Corzine, JonCorzine, New Jersey Governors Race, NewJerseyGovernorsRace

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