Ain't it Rich: Bloomberg's Costly Coast to a 3rd Term

NEW YORK – Standing in front of a statue of liberal patron saint Eleanor Roosevelt on Manhattan's Upper West Side, Mike Bloomberg fielded a reporter's question about his crusade against obesity. New York's two-term mayor – who recently even banned fund-raising bake sales in the schools – described his activist philosophy as he strives to create a city that never sleeps, but also never noshes on anything sinful. "This is America," Bloomberg declared in the nasal tone that launched a thousand re-election commercials. "You have a right to eat what you want to eat. And it's the government's responsibility to tell you if it's dangerous."

Bloomberg, who according to Forbes magazine is the richest man in New York, is also the city's first noblesse oblige mayor. He governs with a sense of certainty that flows from his 10-digit wealth, which was originally derived from a desktop market ticker. He is an unlikely mayor, elected in 2001 on the Republican line in the wake of 9/11, who now sees himself as an indispensable mayor, running for re-election in the wake of the Wall Street collapse after he (with the formal approval of the City Council) overturned term limits last year. But Bloomberg is also willing to overturn every fund-raising record – spending $65 million so far – in his unequal battle against Democrat Bill Thompson, the elected two-term city comptroller.

"I think the mayor has a deep sense of owing New York," said Christine Quinn, the Democratic speaker of the City Council, who has not made an endorsement in the race. "He knows that he wouldn't be a billionaire if he hadn't come to New York. He has an affinity for the city – and for wanting to give back."

Speaking to about 100 Jewish retirees, mostly former teachers, at a synagogue in Mill River near the farthest shores of Brooklyn, Thompson argued that Bloomberg only has an affinity for affluent Manhattan. "I think we've had a Republican mayor for the last eight years who is focused on big developers, who's focused on Wall Street, who's focused on wealthy New Yorkers," said the under-funded Democrat. "He's forgotten that New York City is made up of five boroughs, not just half of one borough."

Thompson is unquestionably right about one thing: Bloomberg, with his bespoke suits and his carefully tailored manner, is not naturally an Outer Borough kind of guy. As former New York Times columnist Joyce Purnick puts in her new biography of Bloomberg, "He did not pretend to have patience for small talk or even a modicum of introspection. He did not feel your pain and would not admit to any of his own. Curt, profane, cranky and willful, Bloomberg said and did what he wanted (and) hated to admit error."

By most reckonings, Bloomberg has been a successful mayor. Crime has stayed low (a legacy from Rudy Giuliani); racial and ethnic tensions are nearly invisible (the antithesis of the Giuliani era); and the city's finances and services have, for the most part, survived the deep recession (unlike the doleful decades under Democratic mayors following the city's 1975 near bankruptcy). As a result, Bloomberg has maintained solid job-approval ratings. A Marist Poll in mid-September found that 59 percent of New Yorkers rate Bloomberg's performance in office as "good" or "excellent." A Quinnipiac University poll, conducted at the same time, reported that 69 percent of likely voters gave Bloomberg a thumbs-up grade as mayor.

Despite these job approval numbers and Bloomberg's Daddy Warbucks style of campaigning, Thompson's campaign does have a flicker of a pulse. The most recent poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, shows Bloomberg leading Thompson by 51-to-43 percent with a 4 percent margin of error. Of course, it is rarely a V-for-Victory sign when a candidate gushes as Thompson did at the Brooklyn synagogue, "Mike Bloomberg's lead is down to 8 points and it continues to shrink." But according to Thompson pollster Geoff Garin, the campaign's internal polls show that 60 percent of the voters agree with the statement that "eight years is enough" for Bloomberg.

Among New York political insiders, however, Thompson is given even less of a chance than the rag-tag Minnesota Twins who are up against the money-talks Yankees in the baseball playoffs. "Normally if the incumbent is only getting a little more than 50 percent as Bloomberg is, you would theoretically expect the race to tighten," said pollster Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. But because of Bloomberg's jaw-dropping 20-to-1 financial advantage over Thompson, Miringoff said, "I'm not sure that this is a normal electoral environment. My expectation is that it's a race that ends up with Bloomberg up by 10-14 points. But it's still too early to know for sure."

In a normal political environment, Thompson's blistering critique of Bloomberg's ego-driven reversal on term limits (the mayor was willing to accept them until – whoops! – he decided to run for a third term) might be enough to give him traction in the campaign. Instead, because he is hoarding his $4-million media budget, Thompson is reduced to running blink-of-an-eye, 15-second spots rather than the familiar long-form War and Peace-style 30-second commercials.

Thompson, who is trying to become the city's second African-American mayor, is unlikely to gain credibility through the under-funded, under-dog candidate's best friend (even in an Internet age): newspaper endorsements. Bloomberg is virtually certain to win the unanimous blessing of the city's three papers. (Be sure to remember to tell your grandchildren that in 2009 New York still had three paper-and-ink newspapers.) "This election is going to be decided by populist outrage over term limits and the voters' pocketbooks," insisted Eddie Castell, Thompson's campaign manager. "It's not going to be decided by newspaper editorial boards."

In an odd way, Bloomberg's greatest weakness is the near-universal belief that he will be re-elected. It makes the mayor vulnerable to both apathy (the loneliest person in New York was a poll worker during the recent primaries) and single-issue protest votes over term limits. But even though the New York mayor's race is certain to be the nation's most expensive 2009 contest (political consultants should erect a shrine to commemorate Bloomberg's largesse), it probably was effectively over the moment the City Council permitted the mayor – a leader with an appetite for power not sweets – to run for a third term.