McDonnell Holds His Lead Over Deeds in Virginia

Republican Bob McDonnell is leading Democrat Creigh Deeds 50 percent to 43 percent with 6 percent undecided, about the same margin he has held for the last two weeks, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 12. The margin of error is 4.5 points.

McDonnell is seen favorably by 59 percent of voters and unfavorably by 34 percent with 7 percent undecided. Voters split evenly - at 47 percent - on how they view Deeds, with 6 percent undecided.

Some pundits have speculated on how much President Obama's current standing with voters might be a dynamic in this race and the governor's race in New Jersey, where Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine got off to a weak start (though he has now closed the gap).

Writing in the New York Times, Adam Nagourney contrasted Obama's success as the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry Virginia since 1964 with what he said were changed circumstances today: Obama's national approval ratings have fallen, the anti-Bush sentiment has dissipated, and McDonnell has had some success wooing independents by seizing on Obama's policies.

Rasmussen asked voters how important Obama's performance would be in their decision-making and 45 percent said very or somewhat important and 42 percent said not very or not at all important.

The survey didn't directly ask those who said it was important whether they were for or against Deeds. But it did ask if Obama campaigning on Deeds' behalf would make it more or less likely they'd vote for him. The result: 43 percent said they would be less likely to vote for Deeds if Obama campaigned for him, 32 percent said it would have no impact and 23 percent said they would be more likely to back Deeds.

Obama is seen favorably by 53 percent of voters in Virginia and unfavorably by 47 percent. Obama carried the state last year by 53 percent to 46 percent.

The two candidates met in a televised debate last night, and both men tangled over which party's national policies had been best for the state.

Voters said they trusted McDonnell more than Deeds on taxes by 52 percent to 35 percent with 13 percent undecided and on cutting government spending by 52 percent to 27 percent with 22 percent undecided. On transportation, McDonnell led by a smaller 43 percent to 37 percent margin with 20 percent undecided.