Corzine's Challenge: Energize Those Who Voted for Obama Last Year

One question common to governors' races in New Jersey and Virginia is how much the fortunes of the Democrats will be affected by their voters being less energized than they were when Barack Obama won in their states last year.

Obama carried New Jersey by 57 percent to 42 percent in the presidential election, but his approval rating in the state among voters likely to turn out in the governor's contest is now 46 percent positive compared to 45 percent who disapprove and 9 percent who are undecided, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 9-12.

PPP says the takeaway in this poll is not that Obama's popularity has crashed in the state,
but "more a reflection of the fact that many of his supporters are not planning to come out and vote for governor right now." So far, the voters who say they are likely to come out this year supported Obama by 49 percent to 45 percent last year, much less than his margin of victory.

PPP says "If turnout patterns for this year were more reflective of who voted last year Jon Corzine would easily be in the lead."

That means the challenge for Corzine is seeing if he can get more of the Democrats who are sitting on their hands to go to the polls. PPP says if he can get the percentage of voters who supported Obama in 2008 into the 53 percent to 55 percent range, instead of 49 percent, he could pull out a victory.