Analysts: Turnout is Key for Democrats in Midterm Elections

Democrats are facing significant challenges in the 2010 midterm elections and will likely see some political setbacks, according to two well-known analysts. And, they said, the majority party has to deliver in several important areas -- and soon -- to avoid frustrating American voters even further.

Celinda Lake, president of Lake Research and a Democratic Party strategist, and Stu Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report, addressed a conference of the National Jewish Democratic Council Wednesday about the upcoming midterm elections.

The outlook isn't great for Democrats.

Both Lake and Rothenberg said Democrats would likely lose some Senate seats, though they doubted Republicans would make enough gains to reach a majority in either house.

"Turnout is the key and it is a Democratic problem," Rothenberg said, adding that he doesn't think young voters will show up to vote this time around.

Lake emphasized this point as well, saying the electorate next year will not only be older, but also less diverse. She said younger voters and African-Americans who turned out in big numbers for Barack Obama last year are less likely to vote in the midterms.

And the congressional races are certainly not the only important elections, Lake said. In 2010, gubernatorial elections will play a fundamental role in the fortunes of the Democratic Party.

"It's going to be a lot easier to win the presidency re-election in 2012 if we're sitting on Democratic governors," she said.

In the meantime, there are major policy issues facing Democrats now that could have big repercussions when voters go to the polls in 2010. Among them: the president's decision on whether to increase the number of troops in Afghanistan.

"There's significant risk for the president and his party," Rothenberg said, adding that any decision could end up being the "wrong" one.

Health care reform will have long-term political effects as well, both analysts said, and perhaps the greatest will be divisions within the majority party.

And a perception of a divided Democratic Party could likely translate to a blow at the polls.

Rothenberg said: "Voters hate it when the party in control appears to be divided."