Is the EU in Trouble? (And Does America Care?)

It might seem curious that just three weeks after Ireland voted overwhelmingly to ratify the Lisbon Treaty, there's already fresh talk of the demise of the European Union. But despite eight years of painstaking work, some forces appear to be conspiring against the EU.

European heads of state are slated to meet toward the end of this month to finalize the treaty, which makes a number of institutional changes to the EU charter following the inclusion of 10 new member states back in 2004. The problem is that in order for it to take effect, the treaty needs to be ratified by all 27 members. And not everyone wants to play ball.


Now that Ireland has signed on -- following an initial rejection back in June 2008 -- the obstructer-in-chief seems to be Czech President Vaclav Klaus (pictured). Despite pressure from several European leaders, including the Swedish Prime Minister (and current EU President) Fredrik Reinfeldt, Klaus remains adamant that a deepening integration of the European Union would be devastating for his country.

In particular, he fears that the treaty might enable Germans expelled from the Czech Republic during World War II to return and reclaim property. He therefore wants an opt-out clause (similar to the one held by Poland and the U.K.) to stop the European Court of Justice from gaining extra powers over Czech judges.

But Klaus is not alone. A sizable portion of Britain's Conservative Party -- which is widely predicted to take power following elections next year -- is equally dubious about the alleged benefits flowing from European integration. At the party's recent national conference in Manchester, opposition leader David Cameron narrowly averted a major schism over this issue between those Tories who favor greater integration and those who oppose it. Cameron solved the impasse by promising to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty if it still hasn't been ratified by the member states when he (presumably) takes office.

Until now, most of the hand-wringing and speculation over the future of the EU has remained within Europe. Which only prompts the question: What about America? Does the United States government care if the European Union is in jeopardy?

Anne Applebaum wrote an interesting column for Slate a month or so ago. She maintained that the Obama administration -- like the Bush administration before it -- doesn't really care all that much about Europe (witness the recent cancellation of a missile defense program there). For the U.S., as she put it, Europe is just a photo op.

Well I don't know about Europe as a collection of disparate nations, but the United States certainly seems to have a vested interest in the EU. This concern was manifest in a meeting yesterday in Washington between Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Conservative Party Shadow Foreign Minister William Hague.

Although wary about saying anything in public, U.S. officials have apparently been worried about the Conservative Party's alliances with "far-right" parties in Europe that are seen by some as anti-Semitic. The Americans are also concerned about the Tories' creeping Euro-skepticism, as they would like to count on a united European front on issues such as Iran. The American ambassador to London, Louis Susman, is reported to have said -- in no uncertain diplomatic terms -- that the U.S. government would not be pleased if Britain blocked a united EU.

It's not yet clear yet how all of this will play out. Hopefully, we'll have more news after the upcoming EU summit next week.

In the meantime, stay tuned for an entirely separate mini-drama over whether former British Prime Minister Tony Blair ought to be the next EU president. His leading proponent so far? None other than our dear friend Silvio Berlusconi.

As the saying goes, with friends like these . . .