Democrat Bill Owens in Lead for Upstate New York House Seat

Democrat Bill Owens leads Republican Dede Scozzafava 35 percent to 30 percent in the race to fill the seat of former GOP Rep. John McHugh, who was named Army Secretary earlier this year by President Obama, according to a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 19-21. Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman draws 23 percent and 12 percent is undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.

This is the second poll that put Owens, a businessman and lawyer, ahead of Scozzafava, a state legislator. A Siena College poll conducted Oct. 11-13 had Owens in front for the first time by 33 percent to 29 percent with Hoffman at 23 percent.

Owens benefits by having the support of 60 percent of members of his own party while Scozzafava gets only 46 percent of Republicans. Hoffman takes away 27 percent of Republicans but only 8 percent of Democrats. Hoffman leads among independents with 35 percent, with Owens close behind at 32 percent and Scozzafava at 22 percent.

When Hoffman supporters are asked for their second choice, 9 percent choose Scozzafava, 3 percent name Owens, 26 percent say they won't vote and 62 percent are undecided.

Owens holds the lead even though he has a higher percentage (43 percent) of voters who don't know enough about him to express a favorable or unfavorable opinion than does Scozzafava about whom 37 percent have no opinion. She is seen favorably by 38 percent and unfavorably by 35 percent while Owens is seen favorably by 33 percent and unfavorably by 24 percent.