Latest N.J. Poll Has Corzine Ahead of Christie

The polls on the New Jersey governor's race have been swinging back-and-forth since it started tightening, although usually within a small range of percentage points. The latest entry, a Quinnipiac University survey conducted Oct. 20-26, has Gov. Jon Corzine ahead of Republican Chris Christie by 43 percent to 38 percent, with independent Chris Daggett at 13 percent. Five percent are undecided. The margin of error is 2.8 points.

The last Quinnipiac survey in mid-October had Christie ahead, 41 percent to 40 percent.

"You could see it coming," said Quinnipiac's Maurice Carroll. "Gov. Jon Corzine's numbers crept steadily up and Christopher Christie's steadily shrank. . . . But don't be in a hurry to mark this election as over. Christopher Daggett changed it from 'ABC' -- Anybody But Corzine -- to a real three-way scrap. But a lot of Daggett's voters say they might change their minds by Election Day. Where will they go?"

Thirty-eight percent of Daggett supporters say they could change their mind. Forty-three percent say Christie is their second choice while 27 percent name Corzine. That's at odds with a Public Policy Polling survey released yesterday saying that 44 percent of Daggett backers named Corzine as their second choice while 32 percent chose Christie. PPP also had the top two candidates in different order, with Christie leading Corzine 42 percent to 38 percent, with 13 percent for Daggett.

Another poll released yesterday, from Rasmussen Reports, had Christie ahead, 46 percent to 43 percent.

Christie leads among independents by 45 percent to 30 percent for Corzine and 20 percent for Daggett. Dagget has the support of 9 percent of Republicans and 10 percent of Democrats.

Eighty percent of Corzine voters say they have their minds made up, compared to 88 percent for Christie and 60 percent for Daggett.

The highly negative campaign has pushed the percentage of those who see Christie unfavorably to 42 percent, with 37 percent seeing him positively and 18 percent saying they haven't heard enough to have an opinion. On Sept. 1, voters saw Christie favorably by 41 percent to 30 percent with 27 percent not having heard enough. Corzine has been seen unfavorably almost from the start and that hasn't changed -- 52 percent regard him unfavorably to 41 percent who see him favorably. Sixty-one percent haven't heard enough about Daggett to have an opinion, but at least that's better than the 87 percent in that camp at the beginning of September.

Sixty percent of voters believe property taxes will go up if Corzine is re-elected, while 37 percent say that of Christie.

When it comes to the campaign ads on television, 58 percent found Christie's ads to be annoying while 35 percent called them informative. Fifty percent found Corzine's ads to be informative while 45 percent called them annoying.